Research Of Price Forecasting Of Shijiazhuang-taiyuan Passenger Dedicated Line

Hight-speed railway is becoming the common direction in the development of worldwide railway for the sake of its advantage in technology and economy.The construction of shijiazhuang-taiyuan passenger dedicated line in china is a significant complicated system project.Whether the transport price is appropriate or not will have an effect on the transport volume and profit,thus deterning the future development of high-speed railway to some degree;On the other hand,as an element of the system,transport price will also be influenced by other related factors.The passenger dedicated line system is made up of these factors moving together and affecting each other.The author concentrate on how to determine the transport price of shijiazhuang-taiyuan passenger dedicated line and forecast how these related factors will move after the railway completed during 2015 to 2025 , measuring and analyzing the inlfuential factors of shijiazhuang-taiyuan passenger dedicated line.In the secend part,exterior factors which influence the formation and movement of transport price such as transport cost,competition and the ability of residents to pay for the traveling fee are analyzed and the pricing principles and objects are also discussed.Then considered all the interior and exterior factors together ,a system dynamic model is set up to forecast the number and future variation of the transport price and related factors during2015—2025.