| Fuping County of Shaanxi Province is located in the northern Weibei highland, the average rainfall throughout the county for many years is 533.2mm. Only shichuanhe river has short-term river flood during the season of summer, all the rivers in the county are drying up . County per capita water resources is less than One-sixth of the Shaanxi Province's, it's one of a water-shortage counties. At present, the water resources mainly include shallow groundwater and off water, but the shallow groundwater are mainly distributes in the alluvial fans, Plateau area and plain. With a growing population, the rapid development of industry and agriculture, improvement of living standards throughout the county residents, the demand of water resources increases, the exploitation of groundwater is increased too, the contradiction between supply and demand is more and more obvious, in order to make rational use of limited water resources, In accordance with datas of groundwater changes, the average annual precipitation, the demand of water resources in industry, agriculture and living, the total population, industrial and agricultural output value. The article, First of all, analyzes the relationship between the changes of water resources and the annual precipitation by the method of Morlet wavelet, finding the main reason for changes in water resources; Then the article quantifies water resources carrying capacity, again by the method of back propagation artificial neural network based on genetic algorithm, the article forecasted the demand of water resources in various departments and analyzed the gap between supply and demand; Finally, by the use of genetic algorithm the model worked out cost-effective coefficient of water resources to determine the distribution proportion of water resources. Further more the model optimized the allocation of water resources of Fuping County. In the end, the article put out several suggestions of sustainable use of water resources.The conclusions are as follows:The 1 st, Fuping County has three regions: piedmont alluvial fans, Loess Plateau area and plain, shichuanhe river terraces. After analysises of the period changes and abrupt of precipitation and groundwater in all the three regions, the results showed that Changes of groundwater follows the changes of precipitation in all regions by 2000, after 2000, the result shows that the over-exploitation of groundwater is a main reason for the decline of groundwater.The 2nd, According to the indicators "I" of Carrying capacity of water resources, the article quantified water resources carrying capacity, the results showed that the value of "I" increased from 0.5043 in 1986 to 0.8998 in 2007, showing year-on-year upward trend. The value of "I" increased by 0.199 in every 10 years, as the value increased, the carrying capacity of water resources decreased. According to the growth rate, the value of "I" in 2012 reached 1, water resources carrying capacity reached a critical value, the water supply and demand will become the bottleneck to sustainable economic developmentThe 3rd, In accordance with GA-BP-ANN model, the article predicted three main sectors for water demand in Fuping County, combined with Water Conservancy Bureau's planning which refered to the water demand in the construction, environment, Service industries in in 2015, 2030. The model worked out the total water demand, water resources carrying capacity and supply and demand gap in different precipitation probability in 2015 and in 2030. In 2015, if it is a rainy year, the water resources carrying capacity reached a critical value, in the average case, the gap between supply and demand reached 22,652,300 m~3, the gap is 64,124,000 m3 in the case of dry year. But in 2030, in the case different precipitation probability, economic development will beyond the carrying capacity of water resources, especially in dry years, double the current water supply will be needed to meet socio-economic development.The 4th, In the case of ensuring living water and the sound development of the ecosystem, to improving water-use efficiency, maximum efficiency of water resources is the objective function, the water resources carrying capacity, living conditions, water supply are conditions, in order to balance the water demand of various sectors. The article designed optimal allocation of water resources model and worked out that the proportion between the water demant in agriculture and industry is three to one in 2012. Based on water resources of Fuping Conunty, it was required to further enhance the industrial and agricultural water use efficiency and the capacity of sewage treatment...
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