Theoretic Study On Processing Data Of Station Capacity Calculation

As the important grass-root unit of railage, there are many technical facilities and staffs in the Station, especially Technical Station. And also the Station must shoulder arduous transport tasks. With the rapid development of national economy, the capacity of station needs to be increasing. How many tasks can the staton shoulder, how much the existing transport capacity, and the latent capacity? It is the only way to answer above questions that is capacity calculation for station. So, the capacity calculation is an important part of technical management, and also the result of which is a main basis for proper decision-making. The calculation needs to be more scientifical and practical, so that transport production is organized more rationally and resources are assigned more effectively.As far as two problems about data processing method and the expression of calculation results, this paper gives deep discussion, and makes examples of Linpanshui Station and Chongqing Station. First, it discusses the complexity of Occupation Time, uses statistical theory and software to analyze and test distribution characteristic of the data, and estimates the interval of Time Standard; then uses the Uncertainty theory to estimate the interval of capacity with combineing the conclusion of data analysis and the analytical calculation of utility ratio. On this basis, the paper also discusses the feasibility about applying the method of Bayesian Statistics to capacity calculation for Station.The main work and innovation is following:1. The rationalization of original data: owing to the dynamic complexity in the local of transport management, the original data can not reflect confitions of switch and track occupancy correctly. It is a purpose that is data can more correctly reflect the real conditions of thoat, track and hump occupancy. For this purpose, it uses Grey Theroy to rationalize the original data, and also to exclude the disturbance of surroundings and artificial factors;2. The arithmetic of amending parameter: in the formula for Time Standard of throat occupancy, there are two parts that are actual occupance time and minimum occupance time. By analyzing the distribution characteristic of each part, the weight of each part is changed from the constant to the variable correlated to stability of each part;3. The interval estimation model for capacity calculation: base on analyzing the data of occupancy time, it uses the theory of statistic and uncertainty to express the result in interval form. Compared with the existing point estimation model, the interval estimation model is more scientific, rational and practical.