Study On Water Resource Carrying Capacity In Kaifeng City

Water resources carrying capacity is a foundational topic in water resources security strategic study and the foundational measurement of water resources security. It is an index which refers to the system of society, resources and environment. It reflects the supporting ability of the water resources system for sustainable society development, and it is an important issue in the field of water resources research and sustainable development. In practice domain, water resources carrying capacity is a basic theory of the regional water resources exploitation. Therefore, by researching the region water resources carrying capacity, we may understand the supporting function of the water resources system for social development, harmonize developmental relationships among the population, the resources and the entironment, also we can realize the social sustainable development better. Water resources science theory is applied in this paper. By using qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, and with the aid of computer technology, statistical analysis software SPSS 10.0, grey system theory, the supplying and demanding of water resources of Kaifeng city is forecasted and discussed. And then, water resources carrying capacity in Kaifeng city is evaluated for status quo and the next several decades with the maximum entropy principle model. The purpose is to provide scientific basis for rational water resources exploitation and utilization, to put forward suggestions for strengthening the management of water resources and to improve local water resources carrying capacity. Apart from the introduction, this paper can be divided into seven parts: Part 1 Researching of status quo and development trend of water resources carrying capacity. The historical process of development of water resources carrying capacity is reviewed simply. The author introduces two aspects concept evolution and the appraisal model in the water resources carrying capacity's research progress, and puts forward the author's view to water resources carrying capacity. The problem and development trend of water resources carrying capacity are also analyzed. Part 2 The conditions and exploiting status quo of water resources in Kaifeng city. The quality and quantity of regional water resources are foundational physical conditions of the research. In this part, the scope of the research area is identified firstly, the Kaifeng's precipitation, evaporation, the average annual amount of local water and the availability of the Yellow River's water are following summarized. Finally the supplying and demanding situation of water resources in the city of Kaifeng in 2000 is simply discussed. Part 3 A prediction of economic development and the need for water in Kaifeng city. By using the SPSS 10.0 software ,short term and long term predictions of the population development of Kaifeng are first analyzed; Then , two different projects of development: A(Basic) and B(recommended) are designed to predict the short term and long term industrial development by employing gray system theory model and prediction according to given increasing rate separately. Finally, two different agricultural irrigation development projects: C(basic) and D(recommended) are designed according to the scale of water-saving to predict the agricultural irrigation development, meanwhile roughly predict the development scale of the animal husbandry and the fishery to figure out the quantity of water demands of each item using given-amount method and, lastly predict the quantity of water demands of entironment of Kaifeng city. Therefore, the total quantity of the water demands for short term and long term economic development of Kaifeng city are figured out. Part 4 Predict the amount of water supply in the future and the discussion about the Supplying and demanding situation of water resources. The amount of water available in Kaifeng city is predicted based on predicting the availability of the Yellow River's water and the ground water in the future. And the recommended plan for water resourc...