Study On Water Resources Carrying Capacity Of Hunhe River Basin

Water resources is not an inexhaustible resource,it has its own limits,namely "water resources carrying capacity". Human use of water resources within the scope of the water resources carrying capacity. Only in this way can truly achieve the goal of sustainable utilization of water resources. In recent years, problems of water resources shortage and pollution have become increasingly prominent, and phenomenons of water resources overload become increasingly frequent. Therefore, calculating basin or regional water resources carrying capacity and analyzing that water can carry what scale of population and socio-economic have an important practical significance.Hunhe River basin is an important industrial and commodity grain production base in Liaoning Province, and it is the country's major heavy industrial area. It is characterized by a prosperous economy, dense population. However, its water resources is relatively poor, and the degree of the development and utilization of water is high. It is one of the areas of serious water shortage in China. With the rapid development of socio-economic level and the constant improvement of the degree of urbanization and people's living standards, coupled with the process of accelerated in the revitalization of northeast old industrial bases, contradiction between supply and demand of water resources has become increasingly prominent and water shortage has become a major factor in constraining social and economic development. The second stage of Dahuofang inter-basin water transfer project started in 2006, its future implementation will ease the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources and must have a big impact on water resources carrying capacity in the basin.The main content of this study include the following aspects:Firstly, understanding and analyzing the definition,connotation and the basic characteristics of water resources carrying capacity at different angles and backgrounds, contrasting the research methods at home and abroad, summarizing the shortcomings of the various research methods, which lay a foundation for researching water resources carrying capacity in Hun River Basin.Secondly, according to principles of index system establishment, preliminaryly selected index system. Then used partial least-squares regression to extracted 8 indexes that could well interpret water resources carring capacity of Hunhe River quantitatively, such as water quantity of per area and so on.Thirdly, used the modified osculation value method to evaluate current year(2005) and the planning year (2020 and 2030) before and after water conveyance project of Dahuofang reservoir.The result were that the situation of water resources carrying capacity in all cet band 4 areas belonged to gradeâ…¢of current year, and in planning years the situation become appreciably. After water transfer the condition was significantly improved and most areas were gradedâ…¡. Fourthly, considering the background of water conveyance project of Dahuofang reservoir, we establish the correspond fuzzy multi-objective model for Hun River Basin.The planning years'water resources carrying capacity were quantitatively calculated. Calculation results show that Hun River Basin can carry population and social enconomy scale are 11.8828 million, 954038.61 tons, 968.53 billion yuan and 10.912 million 1167339.3 tons, 1.70641 trillion yuan prior to water transfer in 2020 and 2030; and can carry population and social enconomy scale are 16.0108 million, 955202.63 tons, 1779.584 trillion yuan and 14.4405 million 1171132.33 tons, 32340.94 trillion yuan. The results were consistent with evaluation results.Fifthly, basing on the result of calculation and analysis and the existing problems of water resources, propose corresponding countermeasures to improve the water resources carrying capacity in Hun River Basin.