| The nature of global conflict has transformed dramatically in the past few decades thanks to changes in international relations. Many attempts at successful conflict mediation have failed due to the dramatic scope of the situation still, however, some of the successes in mediation reveal the possibility of finding common ground between two fiercely opposed sides.The purpose of this study is to investigate the importance of leverage, in the form of power, tools and resources, and interests, of the mediator, as individual or governmental entity, in influencing the outcomes of the mediation process in international conflicts. The Prisoner's Dilemma will be used as a theoretical tool, while Christopher Moore's 12-step framework will be used as an organizing principle to better understand the mediations. This study comparatively analyzes two cases using two methods: Christopher Moore's twelve stages to mediation and The Prisoner's Dilemma. The cost-benefit analysis will be based on a power-politics analysis of both the mediators' and parties' interests as a key to understanding their decisions and motivations.The first case study examines the conflict between the IRA and Britain the second looks at the civil conflict between the Tutsi and Hutu of Rwanda. The decision to study these two cases was based on the need to have one successful and one unsuccessful mediation case, and to understand the reasoning behind why one failed and one succeeded the respective success and failure. 1 The findings suggest that even the most skilled individual mediators can only achieve success when they have leverage.Based upon conclusions from an extensive literature review of this field, I chose to analyze two different hypotheses, they include: (1) that mediation is unlikely to be successful unless the mediator has some form of leverage (i.e., power, interests, resources), (2) finding the right measure of interest in dispute resolution is central to a mediator's success. Both of these hypotheses will be proven true for the mediation in Northern Ireland and the mediation in Rwanda. By undertaking a critical analysis of these hypotheses, I seek to gain insight into conflict mediation and to offer a productive understanding of the mediator's role in negotiations.1This is also a common perception by the international community... |
