| The quantitative and qualitative studies of this thesis aim at exploring the different conditions during which international organizations are effective at preventing conflicts: by either exerting influence on the conflict itself, or through pressure on the actor state(s), thus changing their behavior in a positive way. The quantitative section of the thesis uses data from the ICB dataset and finds correlations amongst different variables, which according to the literature influence the efficacy of international organizations when it comes to exerting positive effects on conflicts. Key factors are identified and analyzed, such as major power contention, post conflict satisfaction of the states in, most effective organs of the IO's and more. The Qualitative section of the thesis is focused on three major interventions by the UN, the Srebrenica Massacre, the Rwanda Genocide, and the Israeli-Lebanese conflict. After a historical account for what has occurred during these conflicts, key factors are identified attributed to the successes and failures of the UN, such factors include lack of motivation and political will, in the cases of the Rwanda Civil War and the Srebrenica Genocide, as well as limited rules of engagement in the case of the Israeli-Lebanese conflict. The results suggest that international organizations are successful in their intervention about half the time. IO's are also much less likely to be successful if they do not have a security dimension or organs for conflict mediation, as well as low resources, low institutionalization and low democratization. In the case of the UN, the results suggest that the organization is likely to be ineffective if there is a conflict of interest within the permanent members of the Security Council, accordingly, the results also suggest that if the interests of the permanent five members align, and there is shared will amongst them, the Security Council can generate enormous political force. |
