A Study On Diagnosis & Early-warning For Sustainable Development Of Regional Special Agriculture

China is a country of vast territory and rich in agricultural resources, which makes it become a huge market and resource base for special economy. The first major document issued by central government in 2005 proposed to utilize the regional competitive advantage to establish Industrial Belts for agricultural products, improve special agriculture and also regard special economy as a major part of the overall framework in national economy. In the Middle period of 1990s, the whole country regarded the development of special agriculture as a breakthrough for improvement of the diversified management and the "three high" agriculture, so special agriculture has gained its rapid development. However, there are also many serious problems such as structural duplication, small scale, low holistic efficiency and structural instability. In order to change the situation and promote sustainable and stable development of regional agriculture, it is necessary to study and probe the question of diagnosis & early-warning for sustainable development of regional special agriculture, and for further step to achieve goals of the scientific and rational allocation of agricultural resources, the organic combination among agricultural resource, production, market demand, as well as for promoting sustainable development of special agriculture.This paper made a careful and profound research on the diagnosis & early-warning for sustainable development of regional special agriculture through theories such as agricultural sustainable development, comparative advantage, agricultural industrialization, system science, early-warning methods, and the gray system. What the main contents include is as following:Reviewed the current research situation on regional special agriculture in and abroad; Systematically expounded the academic basis of the diagnosis & early-warning for sustainable development of regional special agriculture; Fully analyzed the current development of regional special agriculture in and abroad; Based on them, the author designed the diagnosis & early-warning system for sustainable development of regional special agriculture, including a theoretical framework, a models of diagnosis & early-warning and an evaluation criteria. Finally, the author did an empirical research on diagnosis & early-warning for sustainable development of apple special industry in Tongchuan county Shanxi province, and also established the index system of diagnosis & early-warning, graded the evaluation standards and calculated the weight of index. The author made a diagnosis of the sustainable development situation for apple industry in Tongchuan county . According to it, sustainable development level of apple industry in Tongchuan county was diagnosed common from 2003 to 2006 and sustainable development level was better from 2007 to 2012. At last an anticipation and warning of situation was offered from 2003 to 2012 as well as many suggestions and strategies.