| Climate change is one of the most serious global environmental problems faced by the human society currently. Although the academic debate about the causes and effects of climate change has always existed, there is no denying the fact that the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is the significant factors leading to this change. The leading sector of carbon emissions are secondary and tertiary industries, but the rapid development of agriculture is also the important factor for accelerating climate change. Nowadays, with increasing agricultural carbon emissions, the intensive demands of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it is imperative to develop low-carbon agriculture. However, the problems in front of us are: how much we know about the concepts of low-carbon agriculture? At which development level of low-carbon agriculture in China over these years, and what is the development trajectory and tendency? What are the differences between provincial low-carbon agricultural efficiency, and whether it is of space convergence? What is the key factor that causes a change in low-carbon agricultural productivity in China? Obviously, the effective interpretation of these problems will help us to improve our macroscopic cognition about the present condition of low-carbon agriculture development in China and its basic characteristics. And then that will combine theory with practice and build a more rational policy system to lay a solid foundation of speeding up the development pace of low-carbon agriculture, and really practice ecological civilization construction guideline in China.In view of this, this paper constructed the low-carbon agriculture as the research object. Firstly, with system combed of the related literature at home and abroad, the paper reviewed and summarized these relevant important concepts and theory to ensure the foundation in research. Secondly, this article made the comprehensive accounting of agricultural carbon emissions, carbon sinks and analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics, which enhanced our macroscopic cognition on the one hand. On the other hand, more important, this provided data support for low-carbon agricultural productivity measurement. On this basis, the paper systematically calculated low-carbon agricultural productivity in China, based on agricultural carbon emissions, agricultural carbon sinks and agricultural input and output data, and deeply explored its growth sources, temporal evolution rules, characteristics of regional differentiation, dynamic evolution and convergence. Thirdly, the paper analyzed the influential macro factors of low-carbon agricultural productivity growth and the micro mechanism of low-carbon agricultural technology adoption in China, and found out the key factor which led to the changes of low-carbon agriculture level. Finally, based on the summary and reference of foreign low-carbon agriculture development experience, this article puts forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions, so as to provide necessary data support and policy reference in well practicing the ecological civilization concept and promoting the development of low-carbon agriculture in China. This paper consists of five parts: literature review and theoretical basis(chapter 1, 2), present condition analysis of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural carbon sinks(chapter 3), low-carbon agricultural productivity measure and spatial-temporal characteristic analysis(chapter 4, 5), the influencing factors analysis of low-carbon agricultural productivity and technology adoption(chapter 6), build the low-carbon agriculture development policy system(chapter 7, 8, 9). Through the system research, main conclusions as follow:(1) The amount of China’s agricultural carbon emissions as well as carbon sinks both show the rising trend as a whole, and provincial differences are obviously; as for their intensity, the agricultural carbon emissions indensity continues to decline while the agricultural carbon sinks indensity is fluctuating upward trendBased on the calculation of agricultural carbon emissions in China, as well as 30 provinces, this paper analyzed their spatial-temporal characteristics. The results show: ①Amount of agricultural carbon emissions in 2012 is 277.1538 million tons, increasing by 34.30 percentages compared with 1993. In which, land use, paddy field, livestock breeding lead to carbon emissions accounted for 34.34%, 23.12% and 37.54% of total agricultural carbon emissions. It presents more obvious four- stage-characteristic, namely ―rise rapidly- fluctuating decline-rise-rise slowly‖. The intensity has been a trend of decrease, but there are differences during different periods. In different regions, the traditional agricultural provinces especially major grain producing provinces are the main sources of agricultural carbon emissions. Intensity displays characteristic of ―the west being higher than the east‖ in general, that is say, the agricultural carbon emission intensity in west of China is highest, followed by middle zone, the east zone is lowest. Based on the difference of carbon emissions proportion, 30 provinces and autonomous regions can be divided into five types, namely agricultural use dominant, paddy field dominant, livestock breeding dominant, composite element dominant and balanced type, of which the majority is the composite element dominant type provinces. ②Amount of agricultural carbon sinks in 2012 is 725.6948 million tons, increasing by 48.80 percentages compared with 1993. In which, food crops and cash crops lead to carbon sinks accounted for 74.33% and 25.67% of total agricultural carbon sinks. In stages, it presents more obvious four- stage-characteristic, namely ―rise- decline-smooth-rise‖; Intensity, though there are some ups and downs, overall is in a rising trend. In different regions, major grain producing provinces and more-developed economic crops provinces are the main sources of agricultural carbon sinks. Intensity displays characteristic of ―the northeast and north being higher than the northwest and southwest‖ in general. Based on the difference of carbon sinks proportion, 30 provinces can be divided into five types, namely absolute(complete) dominant, relative dominant, general dominant, slightly dominant and non- dominant of which the majority are relative dominant and general dominant type provinces.(2) Low-carbon agriculture productivity overall grows slowly in China, and it mainly depends on the agricultural frontier technology progress rather than agricultural technical efficiency improvement.This paper calculated the low-carbon agriculture productivity in China and analyzed its temporal evolution and source with using DEA-Malmquist mode. The research results show that: ①Since 1994, the production efficiency of low carbon agriculture in China grew slowly, with an average annual growth of only 0.80%, according to their change characteristics can be divided into three stages, namely smooth undulating(1993 ~ 1998), wave decline(1998 ~ 2002) and volatility rise(2002 ~ 2012). ② The improvement of agricultural technology efficiency plays the relatively small role in promoting low-carbon agriculture development in China, with an average annual growth of only 0.04%. It has strong recurrence between years, and its change rules are not obvious. Based on its evolutionary track, it can be generally divided into three stages, namely fluctuated(1993 ~ 2001), relatively smooth(2001-2006) and volatile undulating(2006-2012). Actually, frontier agricultural technology progress has played a more significant role in promoting low-carbon agriculture development in China, and its average annual growth rate reached 0.76%. While its evolution also have certain non-regularity, combining with the characteristics of the changes, it can be generally divided into five stages, namely smooth undulating(1993 ~ 1998), sustained decline(1998 ~ 2000), volatility rise(2000 ~ 2007), continued decline(2007 ~ 2009) and continued rise(2009-2012).(3) Low-carbon agriculture productivity in China presents the characteristic of unbalance space obviously. In general, the productivity in west of China is highest, followed by middle zone, the east zone is lowest, and the regional gap is gradually narrowing and shows the characteristics of diversified regional agglomeration.On the basis of calculating and analyzing the space differences of low-carbon agriculture productivity in China, this paper discussed its dynamic evolution and convergence with using Kernel density function and the theory of economic growth convergence. Further, combining with traditional agricultural productivity, we identify the relative low-carbon agricultural production provinces in China. The results show that: ①In provincial perspective, the provinces whose low-carbon agriculture productivity average values are relatively high are mostly located in eastern and central China while the provinces whose low-carbon agriculture productivity average values are relatively low are mostly located in central and western China. Looking from the growth source, frontier agricultural technology has played a more important role while the improvement of the technical efficiency has relatively small effect. Specific to the three regions, the average values of low-carbon agriculture productivity in eastern China is highest, followed by middle zone, the west zone is lowest. Among them, the east and central regions depend on the frontier agricultural technology progress, with small technical efficiency contribution and middle zone slightly better than east zone, the technology efficiency and frontier agricultural technology of the western region are in a state of deterioration. ②During the sample period, the regional differences narrowing trend of low-carbon agriculture productivity is relatively obvious, and gradually shows the characteristics of diversified agglomeration. And the regional differences of technical efficiency has gone through a changing process of broadening, narrowing and broadening and finally the regional disparity has obviously broadened while regional differences of the frontier agricultural technology has gone through a changing process of broadening, drastic-narrowing and narrowing and finally the regional disparity has obviously narrowed down. Overall, there is no s convergence in China and its eastern, central as well as western region, but all have existed obviously absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence. ③At the current stage, neglect of agriculture carbon emissions and carbon sinks factors will overestimate the agricultural total factors productivity growth in China, among 30 provinces only Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Henan, Gansu and Xinjiang are relatively low carbon and environmental protection in agricultural production, the remaining 24 regional are relatively high-carbon.( 4) The factors that influence the growth of low-carbon agriculture productivity in China are constantly changing, but not affected by the adjustment of industrial structure. Whether to adopt the low-carbon agricultural technology is largely associated with the household heads of individual characteristic.Analyzed main factors affecting the growth of low-carbon agricultural productivity at different stages, we find that: ①Before the "Central First Document" comes on stage, low-carbon agriculture productivity growth in China is mainly affected by three factors, namely the rural basic education level, economy development level, natural disasters. However, after that, it is mainly controlled by public investment, opening-up degree, and natural disasters in agriculture. Adjustment of agricultural industry structure has not passed significant test, we can see that China’s agricultural industrial structure is more disorderly, randomly adjusted, lack of direction and planning. ②Some measures will contribute to a rapid increase of low-carbon agriculture productivity, such as strengthening basic education and put forth effort to improve farmers’ quality, increasing financial support for agriculture to promote agricultural science and technology innovation, improving the construction infrastructure to enhance the capability to resist agricultural disaster, constantly optimizing the structure of agricultural trade to reduce the potential loss of carbon sinks, stepping up publicity efforts and focusing on the construction of low-carbon agriculture demonstration zone. Further, based on farmer’s behavior and using the multivariate ordinal Logistic model to explore the main factors influencing low-carbon agricultural technology adoption, we find that: ①Fertilizer-saving technology is affected by gender, years of farming, cadre identity, arable land, the awareness of low-carbon agriculture, whether to participate in agricultural cooperative economic organizations; while pesticides-saving technology is affected by gender, educational level, cadre identity, arable land, whether to install cable television. ②To enable more farmers to adopt low-carbon agricultural production techniques, we can improve from four aspects: First, strengthening the publicity and education, and letting low-carbon agriculture concept is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people; Second, regularly carrying out special training to enhance the farmers’ professional skills; Third, strengthening the information construction to ensure the cable television, cable Internet access to millions of households; Fourth, perfecting the function of agricultural cooperation economic organization and services, and actively guiding scattered farmers to participate in it.(5) Promoting low-carbon agriculture development needs actions from all aspects. Not only the construction of macro policy system and meso cooperative mechanism, but also farmers’ low- carbon agriculture technology preferences should be paid attention to.In order to promote rapid development of low-carbon agriculture, it is necessary to make relevant suggestions based on macro, meso and micro levels, which specifically includes: ①Perfecting the policy support system of low-carbon agriculture development, and doing a good job about guidance on the macro and top level design. For the fact that the design of low-carbon agriculture-related policy system is not perfect in China, strengthening the low-carbon agricultural policy system can be built from four aspects: First, promulgating the "low-carbon agriculture law", and giving a clear definition about the concept, characteristics and importance of low-carbon agriculture. Second, improving the policy supported system for the development of low-carbon agriculture and creating a favorable policy environment. Third, developing low-carbon agricultural development program to achieve overall strategic plan; Fourth, perfecting low-carbon agriculture-related legislation, ②Building a low-carbon agricultural development cooperation monitoring mechanism to narrow the gap and achieving a regional balance. In order to narrow regional gap in the development of low-carbon agriculture as soon as possible, "three-step" strategy can be implemented: First of all, the key factors that restrict low-carbon agriculture development in different province should be clarified. Then, the formulation of strategies should be categorized and targeted to promote regional balance. Finally, low-carbon agriculture cooperative monitoring center should be created to ensure the smooth implementation of the policy. ③Focusing on the development and promotion of low-carbon agriculture technology, and then achieve low-carbon agricultural production process. In order to solve the problems which often encounter in low-carbon agricultural extension process, such as some unwanted goods, the supply of technology is difficult to match the demand and so on. We can take actions from three aspects: Firstly, further researching in rural areas, and constantly improve low-carbon agricultural technology research and development according to farmers’ demands; secondly, widely publicizing to encourage farmers to use low-carbon agricultural technology; thirdly, focusing on the farmers’ skill training to realize low-carbon agriculture production process.Innovation in this study includes three aspects:(1) Carefully calculating agricultural carbon emissions/carbon sinks and analyzing their spatial-temporal characteristics. In the 3rd chapter, through a large number of domestic and international literature and consulting some experts, this paper builds best agricultural carbon emissions/carbon sinks estimates index system in both the breadth and precision, and then estimates agricultural carbon emissions and sinks of China as well as its 30 provinces, and analyzes its temporal evolution and spatial differentiation characteristics. Meanwhile, this paper discusses the fairness of the distribution of agricultural carbon emissions based on the view of carbon sinks. Compared to previous studies, this paper on agricultural carbon emissions/sinks measured more comprehensively, and analyzed more deeply. It greatly enhances our macro-awareness of the status quo. More importantly, these results provide the necessary data to support for the measures of low-carbon agriculture productivity, making core research in this paper can be carried out smoothly.(2) Analyzing the historical changes in the development levels of low-carbon agriculture and exploring its characteristics of regional differences. In order to achieve low-carbon agriculture transition from purely qualitative analysis to the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, in the 4th chapter, this paper introduces total factor productivity, and measures low-carbon agriculture productivity in China by using DEA-Malmquist and analyzes its temporal evolution and sources. At the same time, the paper respectively measures low-carbon agriculture productivity level based on province domain and big district(eastern, central and western China) perspective, and from province domain level analyzes its dynamic changes and evolution trend. Futher more, the paper distinguishes and identifies low-carbon provinces in agriculture production in China, so as to point clearly regional differences of China’s low-carbon development level.(3) Empirically testing the main factors influencing low-carbon agriculture development and its technology adoption, and considering both macro and micro. In order to overcome the problem that subjectivity is too strong, the paper explores the key influencing factors in low-carbon agriculture development and its technology adoption though empirical analysis. Among them, in the 7th chapter, the 1th section, this paper analyzes the main factors influencing the development of low-carbon agriculture based on the provincial panel data by using the Tobit model, with low-carbon agriculture productivity as the dependent variable while education in rural areas, economy development, and public investment in agriculture as the independent variable. In the 2nd section of 7th chapter, we analyze the important factors affecting farmers’ low-carbon agriculture technology adoption behavior by Logistic model using survey data, with farmers’ low carbon agricultural technology adoption as the dependent variable while gender, education level, income level, acknowledge of low-carbon agriculture as the independent variables.
|
PDF Full Text Request