The Impact Of International Crude Oil Futures Prices On Chinese Stock Prices

Oil,as one of the representatives of traditional energy,promotes the economic development of various countries and penetrates into all walks of life.It not only has an impact on industry,transportation,finance,real estate,consumption and other industries,but also has an impact on stock prices and prices.In addition,as an international consumable commodity,oil not only has the commodity property,but also is affected by the supply and demand relationship of crude oil,politics,geography and other factors.It also has the financial property,which is affected by monetary policies,exchange rate policies and other factors.China is the largest crude oil importing country in the world.Based on China’s current product pricing mechanism,we adopt the international crude oil benchmark and float in the cost range to price.Therefore,the fluctuation of international crude oil price will inevitably affect China’s economic development.At present,American WTI crude oil futures are the main benchmark price of international crude oil,but Chinese futures market has not been long in the pricing of crude oil,and there are few relevant studies.Therefore,on the basis of original research,starting from the perspective of spillover effect,this paper adopts the empirical analysis method to analyze the influence relationship between Chinese stock price and international oil futures price,which has certain guiding significance to promote economic development and prevent the influence of national crude oil price fluctuation.Among them,through empirical analysis,this paper finds that the mean spillover effect between international crude oil futures prices and Chinese stock prices is unidirectional on the whole.The possible reason is that the transmission of costs has a certain time lag.For Chinese stock prices,there is two-way volatility spillover effect.It shows that risk contagion exists in international crude oil futures price and Chinese stock market.Locally,the mean spillover effect between the international crude oil futures market and Chinese consumption,pharmaceutical,information and other industries is one-way.In addition,there is no volatility spillover effect between the financial industry,public utility industry and Chinese stock prices,and the volatility spillover effect of energy,materials and other industries is in a single direction.The short-term volatility spillover effect is obvious,which indicates that the international crude oil futures market has certain characteristics of risk contagion to a certain extent,and the short-term effect is obvious.As far as the relevant regulators are concerned,we should strengthen risk management,pay attention to the promotion of stock market reform,and focus on the interactivity of different financial markets.For industry practitioners,especially pharmaceutical and material industries,they should pay more attention to the fluctuations of international oil prices,prevent the occurrence of business risks,and carry out risk management in advance.For monetary authorities,reasonable monetary policies should be made to prevent excessive inflation caused by rising crude oil prices...