Research On The Influence Of Local Government Special Bonds On Real Economy Growth

In the historical process of China’s economic development,the real economy has always been its focus.In China’s Central Economic Work Conference,the development of the real economy has made a detailed plan,consistent with the government’s macro positive policies,to give full play to the positive fiscal policy to drive effective investment.Since 2015,special bonds gradually issued by local governments in China are one of the means of macro control.In recent years,the speed of development has gradually accelerated,and it has become the main financing channel for government debt,playing an important role in stabilizing the economy and promoting growth.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the influence of local government special debt on real economic growth,rational utilization and distribution of special debt and theoretical research on real economic growth.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China,this paper analyzes the impact of the issuance scale of local government special bonds on real economic growth.Firstly,the theoretical mechanism is analyzed and the influence mechanism of special bond issuance on real economic growth is discussed.Secondly,on the basis of the hypothesis obtained from the theoretical analysis,empirical test is carried out.The provincial panel data from 2015 to 2021 is selected to test the correlation between the two and the significance of the influence by using the fixed effect model.Finally,regional heterogeneity is tested,and corresponding suggestions are put forward from the aspects of the amount,orientation and government management of special debt.Based on theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper draws three conclusions:First,the funds issued by local government special bonds are partly invested in infrastructure construction,and partly used as capital of major projects to increase the total amount of fixed assets in the region,and push into private investment to promote the growth of real economy.Second,there is regional heterogeneity in the impact of local government special bonds on China’s real economic growth.Compared with the eastern and central regions,private investment can be used to promote real economic growth in the western region.Therefore,the overall promotion effect of special bonds on the real economic growth in the western region is more obvious than that in the eastern and central regions.Third,the heterogeneity of the impact of local government special bonds on real economic growth can be improved by reasonably allocating the bond issuance quota and strengthening the management ability of local government special bonds to attract more private investment.