| The 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,we gave priority to the development of rural agriculture and continued to narrow the gap between urban and rural areas,ushering in a new stage of reform.At present,in rural areas,the development ability of farmers is insufficient,the insurance and security system are not perfect,and the comprehensive ability of farmers to resist livelihood risks is poor.As a big agricultural province in Shandong Province,Dongying City is one of the areas with a good trend of agricultural economic development.Therefore,it is of certain theoretical and practical significance to study the livelihood risk of farmers in each district and county of Dongying City.Based on the sustainable livelihoods analysis framework and in conjunction with the actual situation in the surveyed areas,the index system of farmers’ livelihood risk assessment was constructed.Six first-level indicators,including environment,health,education,finance,society and policy,were analyzed through questionnaire survey from three aspects of different regions,types and income levels,and the types of farmers’ worries were statistically analyzed.The results showed that:(1)On the whole,farmers are more worried about environmental risk,educational risk and financial risk.(2)From the perspective of different risk situations of rural households,on average,the most worried risks of rural households are mainly environmental risk24.21%,financial risk 24.13% and educational risk 21.25%.The most worried risks of rural households in farming areas and rural households around towns are environmental risk,25.38% and 30.31% respectively.Financial risk accounted for27.4% of pure farmers,while education risk accounted for 28.94% of part-time farmers.Low-income farmers are most worried about environmental risk and financial risk,26.21% and 25.28% respectively,Middle-income farmers were most concerned about financial risks,while high-income farmers were most concerned about educational risks,30.33% and 26.96%,respectively.The index weights of all levels were determined by the entropy method,the ESI model was constructed,and the total value of the six risks of farmers in Dongying city in 2015 and 2021 was calculated by the comprehensive index evaluation method.Results found that:(1)from the perspective of timing,Overall,the total livelihood risk of farmers in Dongying city was reduced from 8.28 to 7.02,With the exception of the total environmental risk increase from 1.67 to 1.9,All kinds of risk values have decreased;(2)From the perspective of space,Spatial features were compared using the Arcgis software,The total risk value in Dongying District decreased from 2.09 to1.2,Total risk from highest change to lowest,There were also significant declines in Lijin County and Estuary District,Down from 1.74 and 1.7 to 1.34 and 1.41,respectively,The total value of the risk in Guangrao County was largely unchanged,The total value of risk in Kenli District increased from the lowest to the highest of1.54.Based on the research results,countermeasures: Dongying should take various measures to reduce the livelihood risk of farmers in Dongying,including improving the environmental monitoring system and establishing agricultural ecological compensation mechanism;improving the medical security system and encouraging the establishment of charity institutions;enhancing the financial awareness and improving the rural financial system;developing the rural basic education and promoting vocational training for farmers,so as to promote the increase of farmers’ income and enhance the level of agricultural modernization.This study enriched the relevant research basis on the livelihood risks of rural farmers in China,and provided theoretical and empirical support for the development of policies and interventions. |
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