Research On Credit Risk Warning Of L Company Based On Modified KMV Model

As the most important financing method in the capital market,bonds are increasingly being chosen by various enterprises.As a capital intensive industry,the real estate industry mainly relies on bank loans and bonds for financing.In 2021,its bond financing scale has accounted for 31.1% of all financing scales,and this proportion is still rising.At the same time,high debts have also generated increasing credit risks.Since 2020,the scale of bond defaults in the real estate industry has been continuously expanding,and the default amount has also been increasing year by year.How to predict the credit risk of real estate enterprises has become an important topic.This article uses literature analysis,case analysis,and quantitative analysis methods to select L Company,the largest local real estate industry in southwest region,as the research object.It analyzes its credit risk status and existing problems,and then uses the modified KMV model to predict the credit risk of L Company before default.Firstly,analyze the current credit risk situation of Company L and determine the overall trend of its credit risk changes;Secondly,the revised KMV model is introduced to clarify its basic principles and calculation process;Finally,collect relevant financial data from Company L and incorporate it into the revised KMV model to quantify its credit risk,and compare the results with the prediction results of Z-Score to summarize the predictive effectiveness and characteristics of the revised KMV model.At the end of the article,relevant conclusions and suggestions were drawn on the effectiveness of the revised KMV model and the improvement of L company’s credit problems.The revised KMV model can effectively predict the credit risk of real estate enterprises,and this prediction is dynamic.Real estate enterprises can use this model to adjust their debt scale in a timely manner,expand their financing channels,reduce their financing costs,and improve their credit level.At the same time,it is also necessary to improve debt risk response measures and default debt disposal measures,comprehensively protect the vital interests of investors,pay attention to brand image and product value chain extension,enhance corporate profitability and social value,and consolidate its own sustainable development ability.