PPP Project Risk Prediction And Risk Control Strategy Selection Based On Bayesian Network And Utility Theory

Since 2014,China has started to promote the development of PPP(Public-Private Partnership),the scale of PPP market has expanded rapidly.A large number of social capital dominated by state-owned enterprises have participated in it.In the process of exploring PPP in China,project risks have been widely exposed.Some projects have failed both in function and finance,and damaged public interests and investors’ rights and interests at the same time.PPP project has the characteristics of large initial investment,long investment period,many stakeholders and greatly affected by socio-economic factors,which makes the prediction and control of its risk more complex and difficult.This paper studies the domestic PPP risk prediction and control strategy selection from the perspective of complex system,which has important practical significance and high theoretical value.The existing research on PPP project risk mainly focuses on optimizing risk evaluation indicators based on project characteristics,or improving risk matrix,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and other traditional technologies.This kind of research relies on expert knowledge and focuses on reducing the subjectivity of knowledge output.However,these studies are lack of systematic analysis of risk and have strong limitations in risk prediction and strong dependence on expert level.In order to make up for the shortcomings of previous studies,this paper takes the project goal as the fundamental guidance,determines the risk transmission chain of PPP project based on impact diagram analysis,and then constructs Bayesian network.By collecting real project case data,EM algorithm is used for network parameter learning,CDF algorithm is used for impact analysis to optimize the model.Finally,realizing the prediction of project risks and project objectives according to the risk source information of PPP project.Based on the risk prediction model,this paper develops the risk control strategy selection model of PPP project based on utility analysis and prospect theory,and verifies it with an example.The results show that this model can better predict the risk events and project objectives of PPP projects.Based on sensitivity analysis,it is concluded that the key risk source types of PPP project are project factors and government factors,and the key risk events affecting investment income are insufficient use risk and construction cost overrun risk.At the end of this paper,a water PPP project as an example is analyzed,which shows that the model has certain value in risk prediction,and can comprehensively consider the cost prospect and income prospect according to the risk preference of decision-makers,put forward the optimal combination of risk control strategies.