The Impact Of Exchange Rate On China’s Cross-border E-commerce Exports

Exchange rate takes a key role in international trade.It is not only an important driving force for the development of the world economy,but also an important factor for the stable development of international trade.Therefore,in international trade activities,fluctuation in the exchange rate level directly reflect the corresponding changes in the purchasing power of currency,and then affect the cost fluctuations and price changes of import and export commodities through price transmission.Nowadays,the economic and trade relations between the global economies are increasingly close,and the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on the world economy and international trade is increasing.Therefore,it has also received more and more attention from academic experts and scholars.The research on exchange rate fluctuation and international trade seems to be an important research direction in the field of international trade and finance.As a new ecommerce mode,cross-border e-commerce mainly carries out goods transportation through cross-border logistics,and realizes the whole process of international trade through e-commerce platform.This model can not only bring more profit space,but also effectively reduce product costs and circulation links,so it is favored by more and more enterprises.The vigorous development and rapid expansion of the cross-border e-commerce industry is largely due to the strong support of the foreign trade policies continuously issued by the country,and the increasingly mature Internet information technology and the continuous improvement of the cross-border e-commerce related industry chain.The development trend of China’s cross-border e-commerce shows a good trend of steady growth,and is expected to become one of the new drivers to boost China’s economic development and international trade.However,compared with domestic trade and international traditional general trade,cross-border e-commerce trade also faces a more complex internal and external environment.Exchange rate change is one of the most important environmental factors.As a currency expression of a country’s currency value,exchange rate change directly affects the cost and profit of China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade,Therefore,it is of great practical significance to explore the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on cross-border e-commerce export trade.In addition,under the current economic and financial situation,how to maintain the steady and healthy development of China’s traditional general trade and cross-border e-commerce trade is a very important and urgent practical issue,which directly relates to the long-term stability of economic construction and social development.Moreover,the research related to exchange rate fluctuation and cross-border e-commerce import and export trade can also provide a diversified perspective for China’s gradual exchange rate reform,and to a certain extent,it can also enrich and improve the research results in fields related to the research topic of this paper,thus enhancing the foresight of relevant theories and broadening the practical applicability of exchange rate and trade theories.After a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the existing studies,this paper takes China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade as the main research object,uses data from SUNYOU data base as the research and analysis sample,and deeply studies the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade from multiple levels.This paper first describes the basic development of China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade,and then makes a detailed description of the spatial distribution pattern of China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade.On this basis,it uses the fixed effect estimation method and the panel auto-regression model to empirically study the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade and its time lag effect,and further combines the spatial econometric model to carry out research and analysis,Discussed the potential spatial spillover effect of exchange rate in influencing China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade.The research results of this paper show that:(1)whether in terms of the sales of cross-border e-commerce exports or the volume of cross-border e-commerce exports,the rise of the exchange rate of the export destination country(i.e.the appreciation of the country’s currency)will lead to the increase of China’s crossborder e-commerce export trade to the destination country.This result is consistent with the impact direction of traditional general trade.The difference is that its impact elasticity is different.Compared with traditional general trade,Cross-border e-commerce export trade is more flexible to exchange rate fluctuations;(2)The impact of exchange rate fluctuations on China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade has a certain degree of lag effect in time,that is,there is a time transmission process between the rise of the exchange rate level of the destination country(that is,the appreciation of the country’s currency)and the increase of China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade,which is similar to the "J curve" effect in general trade;(3)From the two dimensions of geographical proximity and economic proximity,China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade to different destination countries has a stable spatial correlation,regardless of the sales of crossborder e-commerce exports or the volume of cross-border e-commerce exports,The spatial agglomeration forms of destination countries of China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade are mainly high-high agglomeration(that is,countries with high cross-border e-commerce export value are surrounded by countries with high cross-border e-commerce export value)and low-low agglomeration(that is,countries with low cross-border e-commerce export value are surrounded by countries with low cross-border ecommerce export value);(4)There is a certain degree of spatial spillover effect in the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade,that is,exchange rate fluctuations will not only affect China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade to a single destination country,but also affect China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade to countries with a spatial proximity relationship with the destination country.This paper provides strong evidence for the multi-dimensional impact of exchange rate fluctuations on China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade,provides a new perspective for China’s crossborder e-commerce export trade to cope with the risk of exchange rate fluctuations,and also provides theoretical basis and practical support for promoting the long-term,stable and healthy development of China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade.