An Empirical Study On The Causes Of Non Performing Loans Of Commercial Banks Under The New Normal

As China has entered a new economic normal characterized by medium to high growth,structural optimization and innovation drive,and the economic environment at home and abroad has become increasingly complex,efforts have been made to build a modern financial system,promote the return of finance to serving the real economy,and strengthen the construction of financial risk prevention and control system,which has become the basic direction of current financial work.Since the 18 th anniversary of the Communist Party of China(CPC),China’s economy has bid farewell to the high-speed economic growth model.The macro-economy is facing a severe situation of "superposition of three phases".Multiple economic risks,such as overcapacity,weak industrial upgrading,and real estate financialization,continue to emerge.Risks in the financial sector have also been exposed.The non-performing loans and non-performing loan rate of commercial banks continue to rise,which has aroused the vigilance of financial management departments.Different from the rapid economic development stage in the past,as China’s economic and social structure has undergone major changes,the financing needs of market entities have fundamentally changed,and the economic and financial operations reflected by the changes in non-performing loan indicators have undergone new changes.As a core indicator to measure the operating conditions of commercial banks and reflect the risks of the financial system,non-performing loans can help maintain the stability of China’s financial operation and promote the long-term and stable development of China’s economy by clarifying the characteristics of non-performing loans under normal conditions and the reasons behind them,and studying and exploring new ideas and methods to solve the problem of non-performing loans under the new normal.This paper takes non-performing loans of commercial banks as the research object.First,it summarizes the previous relevant research literature and relevant theoretical views,and points out the background,connotation and basic characteristics of social and economic operation under the new normal.Secondly,combined with the reality of the new normal,the paper summarized and analyzed the current situation and changes of non-performing loans of commercial banks in China,and found that the current non-performing loans of commercial banks in China are characterized by absolute scale expansion,rising non-performing loan rate and structural differentiation of non-performing loan industry.In view of these characteristics,this paper mainly explains and analyzes the causes of non-performing loans under the new normal from three aspects of domestic macro-economy,social structure and bank credit environment;Then,in order to verify the analysis view of the causes of non-performing loans of commercial banks under the new normal,this paper selects the monetary supply,macroeconomic leverage,industrial sector value-added ratio,inflation,urbanization rate,youth unemployment rate,social dependency ratio and other indicator variables for empirical analysis.The results show that the current domestic macroeconomic growth decline,industrial structure adjustment,inflation factors,macroeconomic leverage rise The rising unemployment rate of young people and the slowing process of urbanization are the Granger causes of non-performing loans of commercial banks;Finally,aiming at the current problem of non-performing loans of domestic commercial banks,this paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions to solve the problem of non-performing loans of commercial banks from the aspects of stabilizing macroeconomic development and improving the credit management of commercial banks.