| The prevention and treatment of local government’s hidden debt has always been a hot spot of attention from all walks of life.In the period of the 14 th Five-Year Plan,the central government once again made clear the goal of "prudently resolving local hidden debt",which further highlighted the continuous strengthening of the national prevention and control of debt risks.However,in long-term practice,it is difficult to establish an effective long-term mechanism to solve the problem because there is no unified standard for its definition and measurement in the academic circle,which is only a temporary stability.The attack of the epidemic also makes it more difficult to resolve debt risks.Whether the risk of implicit debt can be effectively solved is related to the improvement of national governance capacity and the sustainability of government finance,as well as whether the financial systemic risks can be fundamentally resolved.Therefore,only by accurately grasping the factors that influence the scale of local government hidden debt,can we fundamentally resolve the hidden debt risk from the source.Based on this,this paper takes the scale of hidden debt of local governments across the country as the research object,and analyzes the main influencing factors of the scale of hidden debt of local governments from both theoretical and empirical aspects.The research details are as follows:First of all,the concept of local government implicit debt is clearly defined,related theories are sorted out,the current situation of local government implicit debt is analyzed,appropriate estimation methods are selected to estimate the scale of the implicit debt overall,and then the mechanism of the formation of the scale of local government implicit debt is analyzed in detail from the theoretical level.Secondly,taking the statistical data of 30 provinces and regions in China from 2011-2021 as samples,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the correlation between the implicit debt of local governments and various factors,and finds that the scale of the implicit debt of local governments has been expanding continuously in the past ten years.However,fiscal decentralization,soft budget constraint and promotion incentive have obvious promoting effect on the scale of hidden debt of local government.By further analyzing the heterogeneity of the three regions in eastern,central and western China,it is found that the main factors affecting the scale of local government hidden debt are also different in different regions due to different levels of economic development and other conditions.Finally,the empirical results are analyzed and summarized,and the relevant suggestions on effectively preventing and managing the recessive debt scale from the central government,local government and enterprise levels are put forward,which provides certain theoretical guidance for the healthy development of Chinese economy and society and the financial sustainability under the new situation. |
