Research On The Effectiveness Of Macro-prudential Policy Tools Under The Goal Of Financial Stabilit

The 2008 financial crisis caused unprecedented damage to the economy and an unprecedented impact on the regulatory system.The outbreak of the crisis has prompted countries to deeply reflect on the shortcomings of traditional monetary policy and micro-prudential policies,and the concept of macro-prudential supervision has gradually attracted the attention of regulatory authorities in various countries,while countries have gradually carried out macro-prudential supervision practices.With the continuous enrichment of macroprudential policy practice,the study of the effectiveness of macroprudential policy tools has become more and more important.Therefore,studying the transmission mechanism and effectiveness of China’s macroprudential policy tools on financial stability and the effectiveness of macroprudential policies after taking monetary policy into account can not only enrich the research on macroprudential,but also provide useful references for China’s macrocontrol and financial regulatory system reform.This paper summarizes the macroprudential measures taken by China from January 2008 to December 2020 based on the implementation of macroprudential policies implemented in China and the "Timeline of China’s Monetary Policy" released by the International Monetary Fund and the "Major Events of China’s Monetary Policy" released People’s Bank of China by the International Monetary Fund,analyzes the implementation status,classification and practical effects of China’s macroprudential policy tools on the basis of this,and divides macroprudential policy tools into three categories(liquid,capital and credit)and explains the transmission mechanism affecting financial stability.In order to test the effectiveness of macroprudential policy tools,the credit growth rate,house price growth and short-term capital flow scale are taken as the pegging variables,and the TVP-SV-VAR model is established to conduct the following four empirical studies.First,the impact of the three macroprudential policy tools on credit growth,housing price growth and changes in short-term capital flows is examined by a single policy and a composite index to judge their effectiveness.Second,further study the effectiveness of the three types of macroprudential policy tools under the influence of monetary policy.Third,the transmission mechanism of the three typical tools of macroprudential policy is tested.The conclusions of this paper are as follows: first,under the goal of controlling credit growth,liquid macroprudential policy tools are more effective in the short term,and in the medium and long term,the use of macroprudential policy tools of capital and credit is more effective;Under the goal of curbing house price growth,liquid macroprudential policy tools and credit macroprudential policy tools are more effective.Under the goal of controlling the scale of China’s short-term capital flows,none of the three types of macroprudential policy tools can produce effective regulation and control in a short period of time,but can only produce a certain inhibitory effect in the medium and long term after the use of policy tools.Second,after joining monetary policy,the effectiveness of macroprudential policy will change,among which,the coordination between liquid policy tools and monetary policy is not obvious,and the use of capital and credit macroprudential policy tools is better coordinated with monetary policy.Third,the transmission mechanism of liquid and credit policy tools is relatively clear,while the transmission mechanism of capital macro-prudential policy tools is not clear.Finally,this paper puts forward reference suggestions for the practice of macroprudential policy in China from five aspects: improving macro-prudential rules and regulations,enriching the toolbox of macro-prudential systems,designing the use scheme of macro-prudential tools,clarifying the design principles of macro-prudential,and adhering to the management concept of macro-prudential.