| The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19 th Central Committee pointed out that economic and social development during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period should take promoting high-quality development as the theme.The report of the 20 th National Congress also reiterated the important position of high-quality development,proposing to “accelerate the construction of a new development pattern and focus on promoting high-quality development”.This means that high-quality development is a core issue for China for a long time to come.And improving the quality and efficiency of industrial development and achieving high-quality industrial development is the key to promoting high-quality development.Promoting the high-quality development of industries often requires strong financial support,and debt financing is a means for local governments to raise funds.As debt scales continue to expand,debt risks also pose realistic challenges to high-quality industrial development.Based on this background,this paper studies the impact of local government debt on high-quality industrial development from the perspective of urban investment bonds,and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.Based on the connotation of high-quality industrial development,this paper constructs an evaluation index system for high-quality industrial development that includes 23 indicators from six dimensions: resource allocation efficiency,scale structure efficiency,technological progress efficiency,international competitiveness,energy conservation and emission reduction efficiency,and radiation driving ability.Using entropy method to assign weights to indicators,it calculates comprehensive indices for high-quality industrial development in 30 provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities directly under central government)from 2011-2020.Finally using fixed effect model it empirically analyzes impact of urban investment bond scale on high quality industrial development from national overall level and regional heterogeneity perspective,and draws following conclusions: First,national high quality industrial development index is low but overall development trend is good.There are regional imbalances in development generally speaking eastern region’s high quality industrial development index ranks first,significantly higher than other three regions.Second,the scale of urban investment bonds has a non-linear impact on the high-quality development of the industry,showing the characteristics of inverted U.The appropriate expansion of the scale of urban investment bonds is conducive to promoting the highquality development of the industry,but as the scale of debt exceeds the debt threshold,its impact shows a restraining effect.Third,there are regional differences in the impact of urban investment bond scale on the high-quality development of the industry.Among them,the eastern region and the western region showed a nonlinear impact,and the debt threshold in the eastern region was higher than that in the western region,while the central region and the northeast region showed a linear impact.Both low-indebted and high-indebted regions showed nonlinear effects,and the debt threshold in lowindebted regions was higher than that in high-indebted regions.Local governments can obtain funds by controlling the issuance of urban investment bonds to guide the high-quality development of the industry,that is,local investment and financing platform companies issuing moderately sized debts and efficient use of funds will promote the high-quality development of the industry.On the contrary,if the debt is inflated disorderly,it will be counterproductive and hinder the process of high-quality development of the industry.Therefore,local governments at all levels should rationally use urban investment bonds by rationally planning the investment direction of debt funds and implementing differentiated financing models in different regions,control excessive borrowing by supervising local investment and financing platforms,expanding local government financial resources and transforming government functions,and finally through the separation of government and enterprises,control the scale of urban investment debt from the source and establish a normalized debt risk early warning mechanism to form a long-term control mechanism for the scale of urban investment debt,making urban investment bonds truly become important force for boosting high quality industrial development. |
