A Study On The Effect Of COVID-19 On China-Us Trade In Goods

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted the global economic and trade pattern and has had a certain impact on China-Us economic and trade relations.The sudden impact of COVID-19 has severely affected the development of the world economy,resulting in a sudden stagnation of the world economy,and seriously disrupted the normal order of the world economic pattern.Under the impact of the novel coronavirus pandemic,global trade has shrunk sharply.Through its impact on the demand side,the supply side and the production process,the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the restructuring of the global value chain,affected the development pattern of the world economy and trade,impacted the economic stability of various countries,and to some extent boosted the expansion of "anti-globalization" phenomenon.China and the United States are the two largest economies in the world economy,and international trade has an important impact on the Chinese and American economies.The long-term impact of the epidemic on the global economic and trade pattern requires China to respond cautiously.The US,as the world’s largest economy,is China’s largest trading partner,and China-Us trade is closely related to China’s economy.Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic,scholars have conducted various studies on the impact of the epidemic.First,through historical comparison and shortterm data analysis,it is found that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a severe impact on the global economy,affecting the operation of the economy from the production end,the consumption end and other aspects.The second is to estimate the severe impact of the epidemic on international trade from both quantitative and qualitative perspectives.Third,analyze the impact of COVID-19 on China-Us economic and trade relations based on the background of China-Us trade friction.Scholars believe that the COVID-19 pandemic has brought new changes to China-Us economic and trade relations.On the one hand,the epidemic has inhibited the development of China-Us trade and affected the implementation effect of the first-stage China-Us economic and trade agreement;on the other hand,in the context of trade decline caused by trade conflicts,production restrictions caused by the epidemic may promote China-Us trade to some extent.In summary,there are many studies on the economic impact and trade impact of exogenous shocks in the existing literature,while the studies on China-Us economic and trade relations are mostly based on the impact of China-Us trade conflicts,and there are few empirical studies on the new changes brought by COVID-19 to China-Us economic and trade relations.Therefore,it is necessary to conduct in-depth research on the impact of COVID-19 on China-Us economic and trade relations.Based on the above analysis,this thesis makes a full theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on international trade and China-Us trade.In order to further study the impact of COVID-19 on international trade and China-Us trade flow as an exogenous impact,this thesis first reviewed relevant literature such as the economic impact of COVID-19 and the impact of COVID-19 on economy and ChinaUs trade,described and analyzed the situation of COVID-19 and China-Us trade,and initially discussed the mechanism and path of COVID-19’s impact on international trade and China-Us trade.Then,based on the international bilateral trade data of the World Trade Organization,the global epidemic data of the World Health Organization,and the country indicator data of the United Nations,the high-dimensional fixed-effect Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation method was used to test the impact of COVID-19 on international bilateral trade and China-Us trade.Alternative variables and placebo tests were used to test the robustness of the analysis.Mechanism variable analysis was introduced to conduct sub-sample analysis to explore the impact mechanism and heterogeneity of COVID-19 on international bilateral trade and ChinaUs trade.According to the analysis of this thesis,the following conclusions can be drawn:First,the aggravation of the COVID-19 situation has an obvious inhibitory effect on international and bilateral trade,in which the export volume of China to the US and the export volume of the US to China have increased.Second,COVID-19 affects international trade through the following channels.First of all,the epidemic prevention and control policies of various countries have prevented the rapid spread of the epidemic,but have also led to the obstruction of trade routes.Secondly,the epidemic has shut down factories and kept workers at home,and at the same time led to a decline in household income,which has inhibited the normal operation of international trade on both the supply and demand sides.Finally,the impact of COVID-19 intensification on trade is heterogeneous,with the impact of the first phase being stronger than that of the second phase.Third,the impact of COVID-19 has a heterogeneous impact on trade.The first phase of the pandemic had a stronger inhibitory effect on trade than the second.Sectors such as textiles,machinery and equipment,and electronics were more severely suppressed than agricultural and mineral products,while imports of medical supplies rose as the pandemic intensified.Based on the above research conclusions,this thesis puts forward the following policy recommendations.First,we should actively safeguard China’s international image and adjust China-Us economic and trade relations.The competition between China and the United States is no longer limited to the field of international trade.China-us relations are the most important bilateral relationship,and good maintenance of bilateral relations is a necessary condition for promoting world peace and development.Second,establish and improve an effective emergency response system for health incidents to prevent serious impact of accidents on national health,economy and trade.Third,we need to adhere to the "double cycle" development strategy to enhance the resilience of our economy and increase China’s import capacity.As the second largest economy in the world,China’s domestic economy enjoys vast potential for development.The world today is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century,with weaker external growth drivers and huge potential for domestic demand.China should give full play to the advantages of its huge domestic market size,develop domestic demand and promote economic and trade development.Fourth,strengthen international cooperation and promote the growth of domestic export strength.In the future,China can rely on the Belt and Road Initiative and the RCEP agreement to comprehensively cut international trade tariffs,reduce the use of international tariff barriers,foster a favorable investment environment,and promote regional and global trade and investment growth,economic recovery and prosperity.