Research On Optimal Supply Decision Of Manufacturers Considering Futures Purchase Under Deferred Payment

As a pillar industry of national economy,manufacturing industry is an important embodiment of national creativity,competitiveness and comprehensive national strength.However,affected by economic fluctuations,the upstream and downstream subjects of the supply chain often fail to make timely payment for goods,leading to intermittent capital flow and affecting the normal production and operation activities of manufacturers.This phenomenon is especially manifested in the supply chain dominated by brand parties or large retailers.For example,large real estate companies take advantage of their favorable position at the end of the market.Delay in payment of goods for supplies to upstream manufacturers,or completion of payment by commercial draft,resulting in additional loss of earnings when the upstream manufacturers should have earned normal profits.Faced with this situation,upstream manufacturers in the non-dominant position in the supply chain,in order to retain large-scale orders from large customers,mostly relieve the capital turnover pressure caused by the delayed payment of the brand by optimizing the internal inventory structure,production process,delayed payment transfer to the upstream and other ways.However,in many cases,the above measures still cannot fully make up for the additional income loss caused by delayed payment.However,commodity futures purchase can avoid risks through hedging in the process of futures trading,that is,manufacturers buy futures contracts in the futures market to lock in the raw material procurement cost,and after a certain period,when the futures price rises,they can realize low purchase and high sale.Reduce the cost of raw material purchase and make up for the loss of additional income caused by the delayed payment of brand party.Therefore,when upstream manufacturers in non-dominant position face additional income loss caused by delayed payment from downstream brand parties,they can further combine futures purchase to increase additional income and make up for additional loss in addition to relieving the pressure of capital flow by optimizing production process and transferring delayed payment to the upstream.Specifically,this thesis takes the three-level supply chain consisting of a single supplier,manufacturer and strong brand as the research object.Under the premise of delayed payment and wholesale price discount of the brand,this thesis constructs the optimal supply decision model under the futures purchase of the manufacturer,aiming at the optimal profit of the manufacturer,and proves that the optimal solution of the model not only exists but is unique.Then,through numerical example simulation and sensitivity analysis method,the influence of parameter variation on the optimal supply strategy is analyzed.The results show that when the period of deferred payment to the manufacturer is extended and the price discount is strengthened,the manufacturer can lock the purchase cost from the futures market and make up for its income loss by delaying payment to the supplier.From the perspective of manufacturers,three strategies including delayed payment,futures purchase and scale effect of mass production are considered at the same time,which enrich the theory and practical application basis of production and supply decision of manufacturing enterprises.The established model is more suitable for the actual transactions between the upstream and downstream main bodies of the supply chain.The analysis results can provide some theoretical guidance for non-dominant manufacturers.In addition,it also provides some reference value for future research in this field.