Research On The Application Of Improved Hypothetical Development In Land Valuevaluation

In recent years,with the rapid development of economy,society and real estate industry,land transactions have become increasingly frequent.Since land value is affected by multiple factors,in order to accurately grasp the value of land assets,it is necessary to use scientific valuation methods to accurately assess land value to promote the smooth progress of land transactions.This thesis is guided by the valuation methodology set out in the China Code of Practice for Asset Valuation –Real Estate,and uses the hypothetical development method to value land assets.The hypothetical development method,also known as the expected development method,is essentially to seek the value of the appraised object guided by the expected earning capacity of the real estate.This valuation method is suitable for the valuation of real estate with development and redevelopment potential,including "real estate to be developed" such as raw land,rough land,cooked land,and construction in progress,assuming that the development method is currently widely used in land value assessment.However,when the traditional hypothetical development method evaluates the value of land assets,there are still some unreasonable aspects in the prediction of future income streams of land assets,the selection of discount rate and other parameters,and improving the traditional hypothetical development method to reasonably assess the value of land assets has become a research direction of hypothetical development methods.Firstly,starting from the principle of land valuation and the theoretical basis of hypothetical development method,this thesis analyzes the application advantages of hypothetical development method in land valuation by comparing the land valuation method.Secondly,the hypothesis development method model is combined with the actual evaluation work,and the limitations of the hypothesis development method are summarized,and on this basis,specific ideas for improving the traditional hypothesis development method are proposed,mainly including the use of fuzzy mathematical principles to scientifically predict the future income of land plots.Reasonable determination of discount rate based on CAPM model and real estate industry index;The real option model is used to accurately calculate the option value of the land use right.Finally,this thesis applies the improved hypothetical development method to specific practice,taking the H plot project in Guangzhou as the case analysis object,using the traditional hypothetical development method and the improved hypothetical development method to evaluate the asset value of the plot,and comparing the assessment results of the two with the market transfer price of the plot,and finding that the assessment results of the improved hypothetical development method are more in line with the actual value of the land,which can effectively reduce the subjectivity of parameter derivation in the appraisal process.It is more reasonable and objective to use the improved hypothetical development method to assess the value of land assets.