Research On Grain Production And Export Potential Of Major Grain Exporting Countries Along The Belt And Road

With the rapid economic development and urbanization and industrialization,China’s grain demand has always been growing.Against the background that grain import has become an important and indispensable path for China to ensure food security and the risks of grain import exist,it has become a realistic need for China’s economic and social development to increase cooperation in grain production and trade with countries along the Belt and Road.Therefore,it is necessary to clarify with which countries along the Belt and Road China can focus on grain cooperation in the future,as well as the growth potential of grain production and export potential of these countries to China.To clarify the production potential and future yield increase of three major grain exporting countries: rice,corn and wheat,and to grasp the development space of China’s grain import trade with them,so as to find a long-term and stable source of grain imports for China.Focusing on the above key issues,the article analyzes the potential yields and potential arable areas of major grain crops in major grain exporting countries along the "Belt and Road",and uses the GAEZ method to calculate the production potential and development potential of various grain crops in major grain exporting countries under different assumptions with actual data,so as to grasp the grain production capacity of major grain exporting countries.The GAEZ method is used to calculate the production potential and development potential of various food crops in major food exporting countries under different assumptions,and to grasp the capacity of major food exporting countries to increase food production.(1)The main grain exporting countries along the Belt and Road are Russia,Vietnam,Laos,Thailand,Cambodia,Myanmar,India,Pakistan,Kazakhstan,Lithuania,Bulgaria,Poland,Ukraine,Romania,Hungary,Serbia,Greece,and the Czech Republic.18 countries.(2)Russia,Bulgaria,Romania and other countries have a large potential for food production and can cooperate in the development of food production potential.(3)The GDP and population growth of their countries will significantly increase the export value of major food exporting countries;the improvement of transportation efficiency,government efficiency and trade facilitation level of major food exporting countries can improve trade efficiency.(4)China’s trade potential with Kazakhstan,Lithuania,Czech Republic Poland,Hungary,Pakistan,Vietnam,Bulgaria and Romania corresponding to food crops is large,and it is necessary to continue to develop the trade potential of the above countries on the basis of maintaining the existing trade cooperation with the source countries of food imports;the three countries with the greatest potential for rice exports to China in the future are Laos,Romania and Cambodia in that order,and the The three countries with the greatest potential for corn exports to China are Poland,Hungary and India in that order,and the three countries with the greatest potential for wheat exports to China are Hungary,Poland and the Czech Republic in that order.Based on the findings,we propose the following policy recommendations: first,according to the resource endowment of each country,we should formulate differentiated cooperative development strategies for food production potential for major food exporting countries with mainly potential arable land area,mainly potential grain yield,and both;second,taking into account the differences in export trade of different countries,we should formulate differentiated cooperative development strategies for food export potential for traditional food exporting countries and major food exporting countries;third,we should formulate differentiated cooperative development strategies for food trade.The third is to develop differentiated food trade cooperation strategies for food production fluctuations,investment environment,relations with China and food embargo risks in food trade.