| The COVID-19 epidemic has had a major impact on social and economic development,which may be even more serious for vulnerable groups such as farmers.Although the sky shrouded in the epidemic has dissipated its haze,the post epidemic era has arrived.However,it is of great significance to summarize and review the widespread epidemic and draw lessons from it in order to respond to potential similar events in the future.The existing literature mainly focuses on the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on farmers.However,important research issues such as farmers’ response to the impact,effects and mechanisms have not been fully addressed,which is not conducive to timely response and assistance if such major shocks occur again in the future.In addition,for a long time,agriculture and rural areas have gradually become consensus as "stabilizers" and "reservoirs" in China’s national development.However,does this "reservoir" function still exist in the new era? The natural experiment provided by the force majeure impact of the COVID-19 epidemic will help to answer this question to some extent.Based on a systematic review of the progress of relevant literature,this paper defines the core concepts,and analyzes the theoretical mechanism.Based on the survey data of farmers before and after the COVID-19 epidemic,this paper discusses the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on farmers,and the response measures of farmers as behavioral subjects to the impact,and evaluates the size of the resulting buffer effect,and finally analyzes the mechanism of the buffer effect.The main conclusions of the article are:(1)The COVID-19 has significantly reduced the non-agricultural employment time of the whole sample of farmers,with the average household reaching-25.57 days and the average per capita reaching-12.91 days;The COVID-19 epidemic significantly reduced the total household income and non-farm income of the whole sample of farmers,with the average reduction rate of-15.15% and-7.59%,respectively;The COVID-19 epidemic has no significant impact on the total household expenditure of the whole sample of farmers,but it has significantly reduced the food consumption expenditure of farmers,with an average of-4.3%,while it has significantly increased the medical care expenditure of farmers,with an average of 2.17%;The COVID-19 epidemic has significantly expanded the income gap among farmers,and its Gini coefficient has risen from 0.378 before the epidemic to 0.443 after the epidemic,which has exacerbated the inequality among farmers.(2)The average health level of households,contracted farmland area,number of agricultural technical services obtained,and number of productive assets of households have a positive impact on farmers returning to the agricultural sector for employment,while the number of contracted farmland plots and year-end household deposit balance have a negative impact on farmers returning to the agricultural sector for employment.This indicates that the decision of farmers to return to the agricultural sector for employment is constrained by both their own endowment characteristics and external environmental conditions.(3)If farmers who exit the non-agricultural employment market return to the agricultural sector for employment,their agricultural income will increase by 5307.396 yuan compared to those who have not returned to the agricultural sector for employment,and their nonagricultural employment income is not significant,with a total income increase of 8780.843 yuan.At the same time,since the COVID-19 epidemic significantly reduced the total income of this group of households by 28971.67 yuan,the income buffer effect of farmers by returning to the agricultural sector for employment reached about 23.26%,that is,farmers reduced their total income loss by about 23.26% by returning to the agricultural sector for employment.(4)After returning to the agricultural sector for employment,farmers’ agricultural employment time and farmland investment intensity significantly increased,reaching about 113 days and89 yuan respectively;At the same time,it significantly increased the area of cultivated land transferred in and significantly reduced the area of cultivated land transferred out(and may reduce the idle or abandoned area of cultivated land),by approximately 0.70 mu and-0.52 mu,respectively,resulting in an increase of approximately 1.53 mu in the operating area of cultivated land.This shows that farmers use labor intensification and capital intensification,scale effect and intensity effect as means to optimize the allocation of non-agricultural labor force frustrated in the non-agricultural employment market due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic,and rely on expanding agricultural production scale and intensification level to obtain more agricultural output and income.(5)The COVID-19 epidemic has a significant negative impact on farmers’ wheat production efficiency,with the effect of-0.0159,while the impact on rice production efficiency is not significant.Farmers returning to the agricultural sector significantly improved their agricultural production efficiency,including wheat production efficiency and rice production efficiency,with effects reaching 0.0499 and 0.0837,respectively.This further indicates that returning farmers to the agricultural sector for employment is a systematic process of optimizing factors.Under the COVID-19 epidemic,farmers’ return to the agricultural sector for employment has reached the goal of improving agricultural production efficiency and increasing agricultural income,thus buffering the loss of total income.The above research conclusions indicate that the "reservoir" role of agriculture and rural areas still exists in the present and even in the future,providing alternative paths and safe havens for farmers when they are impacted.Although it is not a perfect "bell jar" that can completely isolate external impacts,it is necessary and effective to some extent.Based on this,in order to improve the resilience of farmers under major shocks,ensure the smooth return of unstable non-agricultural employment farmers to the agricultural sector for employment,fully leverage the impact response strategy of combining farmers’ self-rescue with government support,expand the "reservoir" and strengthen the "stabilizer",the following policy suggestions are proposed:(1)Policies should fully monitor and investigate low-income and other vulnerable farmers groups when they are subjected to major shocks Rescue and support measures.(2)Policies should establish external environmental conditions that are conducive to the smooth return of farmers to agriculture and enhance their own development capabilities.(3)The policy should ensure that the acquisition of agricultural means of production and agricultural production activities will not be interrupted when a major impact similar to the COVID-19 epidemic occurs.(4)Policies should always adhere to unwavering efforts to maintain the stability of farmers’ farmland contracting rights,explore various mechanisms for the transfer and revitalization of management rights,and allow for appropriate resource redundancy.(5)(5)Policies should further expand high-quality employment opportunities and income sources for farmers in the local and nearby areas.In the process of urban-rural integration development,the rural regional economic system should seek its own comparative advantages,develop characteristic industries relying on local agriculture,and achieve "industrial revitalization". |
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