Study On Cash Flow Risk Of Listed Companies In Liquor-making Industry Based On CFaR Model

The 20 th CPC National Congress pointed out that preventing and resolving financial risk,especially preventing systemic financial risk,is the fundamental task as well as eternal theme of financial work.Cash flow is the source of vitality to maintain the operation of enterprises and plays a vital role in the survival and development of them.Cash flow risk from the perspective of enterprises means credit risk from the perspective of financial institutions.When the range of credit risk is expanded to a certain extent,it is easy to become a major inducement of systemic risk.Therefore,it is self-evident that paying proper attention to cash flow risk is of great significance for preventing systemic risk in the financial industry.As an important part of the food manufacturing industry,Chinese liquor-making industry plays a key role in improving people’s sense of happiness and meeting people’s social needs,as well as a significant source of national tax.However,farewell to the rapid expansion period of liquormaking enterprises driven by production and capacity,the capital demand is still increasing.Only by controlling the stability of cash flow and effectively managing cash flow risk can it play a positive role in the long-term development of the liquor-making industry.Specifically,first of all,the paper combs the domestic and foreign research related to cash flow risk and liquor-making industry risk,also analyzes the enterprise cash flow risk management theory and causes of cash flow risk from both internal and external factors,providing theoretical support for the empirical part.Secondly,the paper describes the development status of the liquor-making industry and its sub-sectors,analyzes the whole development situation of the industry,and further expounds its challenges and risks.Furthermore,the selection sample interval of 2012-2021 years of the liquor-making industry listed companies as the research object,the CFaR model based on quarterly panel data,value CFaR of the whole industry and its sub-sectors to gauge and compare the size of cash flow risk.Finally,combined with the development status of liquor-making industry and the empirical analysis results of the paper,puts forward feasible suggestions.The empirical results of the paper found that the liquor-making industry is facing a certain degree of cash flow risk,and risk varies between different sub industries.Compared with the CFaR of the whole industry,it is found that the cash flow risk level of the Chinese Baijiu industry and wine industry is higher,while the beer industry and rice wine industry have a lower risk of cash flow.Moreover,due to the difference of cash flow risk in extreme situations faced by different sub industries,liquor-making enterprises should take scientific precautions,build an applicable early warning system and take targeted measures to deal with it according to their own types and the current level of cash flow risk.