Research On The Control Strategy Of Overcapacity In China’s Petrochemical Industry

In recent years,China’s economy has developed steadily,the market space of petrochemical industry has been expanding continuously,and the investment in petrochemical industry is hot.The industry is facing the pressure of de-capacity and structural adjustment,and the problem of overcapacity has become increasingly prominent.It is a stubborn disease in the development of petrochemical and chemical industries in China,which seriously restricts the healthy development of the industry.On the basis of analyzing the concept of petrochemical industry and related theories and methods of overcapacity,combing and summarizing the research status of overcapacity evaluation and regulation in petrochemical industry at home and abroad,this paper first selects indicators that can reflect the utilization of petrochemical industry capacity from four different levels: development,strategy,innovation and orientation to build an evaluation system of capacity utilization,and calculates the index weight and comprehensive index of capacity utilization by entropy method.The calculation results show that nearly 40% of petrochemical enterprises have overcapacity.Secondly,from the regulation subject and environment,the influencing factors of overcapacity in China’s petrochemical industry are identified and analyzed,and the action path of overcapacity in petrochemical industry is sorted out.On this basis,the factors of petrochemical industry capacity regulation are determined,and the dynamic model of petrochemical industry capacity regulation system is established.The validity of the model is tested,and the model can better fit the reality.On this basis,the capacity of China’s petrochemical industry is simulated and predicted.Finally,Using scenario analysis method to set benchmark scenario,policy scenario and enhanced policy scenario for simulation,comprehensively evaluate each regulation policy in many aspects,and analyze the effect of different countermeasures on improving the overcapacity of petrochemical industry.On this basis,in order to better determine the regulation ability of single influencing factor,find the optimal regulation scenario,reset the influencing factor parameters,calculate the capacity regulation ability of single factor,and compare and analyze the capacity regulation effect of single factor.Measure the potential of regulation and control,determine the regulation and control scenarios,and find the optimal regulation and control scenario by comparing the regulation and control effects under different scenarios of petrochemical production capacity.On this basis,formulate reasonable regulation and control paths and policy recommendations for petrochemical industry production capacity.