Research On RMB Exchange Rate Forecast Under The Influence Of US Monetary Polic

In an open economy,countries in the world trade frequently.As an important medium of international trade,exchange rate fluctuates frequently under the influence of various factors.Frequent fluctuations of exchange rate will encourage speculation in the foreign exchange market,increase the probability of foreign exchange market risks,and go against our economic development and financial stability.As an important tool to stabilize the exchange rate and guide market expectations,the central parity rate of RMB can not only enhance the initiative and autonomy of the exchange rate regulation,but also help market investors adjust their investment strategies in time and reduce additional losses by grasping the future trend of the central parity rate in the face of greater exchange rate risks.Based on this background,when analyzing the influencing factors of exchange rate,in addition to paying attention to the macroeconomic fundamentals,it is also necessary to pay attention to the impact of US-led monetary policies on RMB exchange rate.Based on the complete cycle of monetary policy adjustment in the United States,this paper uses the TVPVAR model to depict the spillover effects of quantitative and price-based monetary policies implemented in the United States on the central parity rate of RMB in different lag periods and at different time points from a dynamic perspective.Empirical results show that different monetary policy tools implemented in the United States will cause different spillover impacts on the RMB exchange rate.It is confirmed that US monetary policy is an important cause of RMB exchange rate fluctuation.Based on the above conclusions,this paper takes the central parity rate of RMB as the forecasting subject and constructs a multi-scale exchange rate forecasting model based on the idea of "decomposition and recombination".The construction of this model not only makes the maximum use of the internal information of the series itself,but also introduces the macroeconomic factors affecting the exchange rate fluctuations and the variables of US monetary policy.The construction process of the model is as follows: First,the Sooty tern optimization algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of the Variational mode decomposition algorithm to reduce the interference of human subjective factors and improve the decomposition efficiency.Then,the optimal parameters are set to decompose the intermediate valence sequence into a series of independent eigenmode functions and a residual in the frequency domain.Secondly,the subsequences were reconstructed into new sequences and input into the Support vector regression model for rolling prediction.The predicted values were output and the prediction error sequence was calculated.Furthermore,the residual serie and the factors affecting exchange rate fluctuations were taken as input variables,and the prediction error series as the output variable.A Back-propagation neural network model was established to output the adjusted predicted values of the error series and finally integrate the forecast results.The prediction accuracy and performance of the multi-scale combination model were verified by four model control groups.This paper aims to accurately predict the future trend of the intermediate price of exchange rate through this multi-scale combination model,so as to provide some reference value to stabilize the market expectation,improve the market mechanism,help the participants in the foreign exchange market adjust their investment strategies in time,and reduce the unnecessary loss caused by the exchange rate fluctuation risks.In the end,the paper puts forward relevant suggestions for the future development of RMB exchange rate,including but not limited to further promoting market-oriented reform of the exchange rate,attaching importance to the confidence and expectation mechanism of the foreign exchange market,and always adhering to the "I" policy.