Research On Valuation Of Pharmaceutical Enterprises In Beijing Stock Exchange Based On Real Option Model

The Beijing Stock Exchange has been upgraded from the selected layer of the National Equities Exchange and Quotations to serve innovative and medium-sized enterprises,which forms a dislocation development with the existing Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the three major boards.It will play an important role in broadening financing channels for small and medium-sized enterprises,deepening the reform of the National Equities Exchange and Quotations and improving the multi-level capital market.As the basic needs of human beings,medical care has certain rigid characteristics.With the development of global economy and the deepening of aging society,people’s awareness of health care is gradually improving,and the demand for medical care continues to grow,thus leading the global pharmaceutical market to maintain a good growth trend.How to evaluate the value of pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises correctly is very important for investors,enterprises themselves and market development.Under the above background,this thesis combines the cases of eight pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises in Beijing Stock Exchange to construct a real option model combining DCF and B-S to evaluate the overall value of the enterprise reasonably.Among them,for the prediction of FCFF,this thesis uses ARIMA model to reduce the influence of subjective factors,for the evaluation of the potential value of enterprises,this article compares the tradition and revised underlying asset prices,option execution price and option term,and compares the results with the average stock price of enterprises in2020,which proves that the uncorrected parameters will lead to the undervaluation of this type of enterprise and the real option method based on the revised data can evaluate the value of such enterprises more reasonably,and the error can be kept within 5% except that there are new major risks.It not only shows that this method can help investors realize the potential option value that existing in the company’s R&D activities,and improve the accuracy of their decision-making,but also help enterprises show their potential and value and lay a solid foundation for obtaining more financial support.Finally,this thesis summarizes the conclusions and points out the limitations in the research process.