Research On The Influence Of China’s Economic Policy Uncertainty On Cross-border Capital Flows

Economic policy uncertainty exacerbates international capital fluctuations,which significantly affects the financial market.In recent years,China’s economic policy uncertainty has increased significantly,and capital flow fluctuates high.Due to the characteristics of classified capital flows,the impact of exploring the influence of domestic economic policy uncertainty on the flow of capital category in China is an important issue for international financial research.Based on the theory of capital flow and various capital flow functions and characteristics,this article,theoretically analyzes the mechanism of economic policy uncertainty that affects classified capital flows.Secondly,through the analysis of the status quo of economic policy uncertainty,classification of capital flow,and the relationship between the two,it is found that the impact of economic policy uncertainty on various types of capital flow may have significant time-degeneration.The TVP-SV-VAR model was then established for a transgender analysis,and the impact of domestic economic policies uncertainty on various types of capital flows has significant time degeneration characteristics in the direction,degree,period,and different macroeconomic environments.After the theoretical and empirical study of this article,the mechanism of the uncertainty of economic policy affects direct investment is the macroeconomic fundamental and exchange rate;the mechanism that affects securities investment is spread,exchange rate depreciation expectations and financial markets;The mechanism is spread and exchange rate.Second,the effect of uncertainty in domestic economic policy on the net investment of direct investment is significantly negative in the short term,and the medium and long term is significantly positive;The mid-term effect on the impact of other investment nets is more significant and positively related.The macroeconomic environment will also have a great effect on the impact of direct investment affected by uncertainty.Third,the main control variables of various types of capital flows,and their impact on capital flows are also sometimes degenerated.Based on this,policy suggestions have been put forward on the three aspects of economic policy uncertainty,classified capital flow management,and capital flow response uncertain impact.