| At present,economic policy uncertainty(EPU)has become increasingly prominent.For the bank-led financial market,how to improve the bank’s risk-taking ability and strengthen the bank’s risk management level has been the focus to maintain the security of the financial system and unblock the financing channels of the real economy.Facing the repeated changes of EPU,analyzing its effect on bank risk-taking behavior will seek a breakthrough for economic policy-making and commercial bank risk management.In line with the logical thinking of "theoretical framework → realistic analysis→ empirical test → countermeasures and suggestions",this paper analyzes the impact of EPU on the commercial banks’ risk-taking behavior.First,it defines and identifies the key concepts,and summarizes the relevant theoretical explanation of EPU and commercial banks’ risk-taking behavior.On account of the above work,this paper explores the internal mechanism of EPU on commercial banks’ risk-taking behavior,and put forward research hypotheses.Second,based on the actual characteristics,this paper studies the historical evolution of China’s EPU and the development status of commercial banks’ risk-taking behavior.Then,this paper empirically tests the existence and direction of the impact of EPU.Further,this paper distinguishes the heterogeneous impact of economic policy types and bank operating characteristics,as well as identifies the intermediary role played by the development level of Fintech.Finally,given the results of above-mentioned analysis,this paper tries to provide targeted policy suggestions for government departments and commercial banks.After the theoretical explanation and realistic analysis,this paper uses the fixed effect model to empirically verify the influence of EPU on the banks’ risk-taking behavior.The results show that EPU has a significant inhibitory impact on the ability and preference of commercial banks’ risk-taking behavior.This paper innovatively identifies the intermediary effect of Fintech development,which means an intermediary channel of "increasing EPU → promoting Fintech development →inhibiting the commercial banks’ risk-taking behavior".Further,by distinguishing the types of economic policies,the impact of trade,fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty is inhibitory.Among them,the most inhibitory impact is fiscal policy uncertainty.But foreign exchange policy uncertainty promotes the ability and preference of commercial banks’ risk-taking behavior.And by distinguishing bank operating characteristics,compared with regional banks,the impact of EPU on inhibiting commercial banks’ risk-taking behavior is enhanced,but there is no significant difference in the impact on the risk-taking behavior preference.Compared with unlisted banks,the inhibitory impact of EPU on the ability and preference of listed banks’ risk-taking behavior is enhanced.Based on the above analysis,this paper attempts to put forward the scheme to improve the commercial banks’ risk-taking from three aspects: the optimization of economic policy environment,the upgrading of risk management of commercial banks and targeted financial supervision,in order to put forward new thinking for the policy implementation of government departments and the risk management of commercial banks. |
