The Impact Of The COVID-19 Epidemic On China’s Rapeseed Import

After the reform and opening up,China’s agricultural product market has increased in openness,and agricultural product trade has flourished.While the domestic agricultural product market is affected by traditional factors such as supply and demand changes,it also faces the impact of price shocks,trade policy uncertainty,and sudden major epidemics in the international agricultural product market.Rapeseed is an important oil product in China,and its industrial chain is related to the national economy and people’s livelihood,which is of strategic significance.The supply and demand of China’s rapeseed market is facing the dilemma of "strong demand and tight supply".In recent years,the COVID-19 epidemic has brought a noticeable impact on China’s rapeseed import trade.Studying the reality and changing rules of rapeseed import trade in China under the impact of the epidemic is crucial to ensuring the safety of rapeseed supply in the post epidemic era and the future.Based on the analysis of the current situation of China’s rapeseed import trade and the impact mechanism of the epidemic on rapeseed import trade,this paper uses the monthly data of rapeseed imports from 2017 to 2022,and uses the Autoregressive Distribution Lag Error Correction Model(ARDL-ECM)to quantitatively analyze the impact direction and degree of the epidemic on China’s rapeseed trade,to further explore the long-term and short-term effects of the COVID-19 on rapeseed import trade,And carry out heterogeneity analysis and robustness testing.The research results show that after the outbreak of the epidemic,the sources of rapeseed imports in China have become more concentrated,and Canada remains China’s most important trading partner,with the import amount and quantity still accounting for more than 90% of the total imports.China’s rapeseed border trade with Mongolia and Russia has increased,and Australia is no longer a source of rapeseed imports in China.From the perspective of the impact of the epidemic,in the long run,the import of rapeseed in China will be significantly affected by the epidemic situation in China,and when the epidemic situation becomes more severe,the import volume will increase;However,the impact of the epidemic in Canada,the main trading target,has a three stage lag.In addition,rapeseed imports will be significantly negative and long-term affected by the depreciation of the RMB and the rise in the spot price of crude oil.In the short term,China’s rapeseed imports are still affected by the domestic epidemic,and the current import volume from Canada,a major trading partner,will be dynamically adjusted based on the previous import volume.