Research On The Impact Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On Enterprise Shadow Banking

In recent years,the global economy has continued to fluctuate,geopolitical conflicts have occurred frequently,the economic policies of various countries have become more complex and changeable,and the uncertainty of the international macro environment has increased significantly.The uncertainty of macro expectation caused by policy changes at home and abroad will directly affect the economic decisions of enterprises and investors,resulting in their inability to properly smooth lending,investment and other behaviors.The misplaced transformation of the real enterprise sector from shadow banking to financial intermediary role has led to the accumulation of funds idling within the financial system and exacerbated the hollowing out trend of the real industry.Therefore,starting from the uncertainty of economic policy,studying the internal mechanism of its impact on enterprise shadow banking and the heterogeneity of different enterprises has profound theoretical and practical significance for the regulatory authorities to control enterprise shadow banking business.Under the research framework of financial mismatch theory,real option theory,preventive savings theory and risk aversion theory,this paper constructs fixed effect model,intermediary effect model and threshold regression model by using the data of A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2020 and the Cepu index constructed by Huang and Luk(2020),so as to explore the nonlinear impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise shadow banking and its intermediary role.The regression results of the basic model show that there is a U-shaped relationship between the uncertainty of economic policy and the scale of enterprise shadow banking.With the increase of economic policy uncertainty,the larger the scale,the higher the financial leverage,the weaker the profitability,the longer the market age,and the enterprises with lower market expectation for enterprises,the stronger the tendency to engage in shadow banking business.Taking the uncertainty of economic policy as the threshold variable,the threshold value of enterprise shadow banking is estimated to be 2.0147.That is,when the uncertainty level is less than the threshold,the two are negatively correlated,that is,at this time,the uncertainty of economic policy will inhibit the expansion of enterprise shadow banking scale;When the uncertainty level is greater than the threshold,the uncertainty of economic policy will promote the expansion of enterprise shadow banking scale.In addition,the intermediary effect test found that 40.65% of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise shadow banking is transmitted through the intermediary effect of financial mismatch,that is,the influence channel of "economic policy uncertainty financial mismatch enterprise shadow banking" exists.Finally,the results of heterogeneity analysis show that in enterprises with higher asset specificity and state-owned property rights,the impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise shadow banking is more significant.