Research On Credit Risk Evaluation Of Agricultural Supply Chain Finance Under The Background Of Digital Economy

Over the years,the application of digital technologies such as big data,Internet of Things and blockchain has accelerated,and the digital economy has been flourishing,moreover,it has been applied to the field of agriculture,affecting a series of links such as procurement,production and sales of agricultural enterprises,and the digitization of agriculture is just around the corner.In addition,although supply chain finance started late in China,it is developing rapidly in China because of its advantages in solving the financing problems of small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs).And the importance of the "Problems about Agriculture,Rural areas and Peasantry" also highlights the key role of agricultural SMEs.However,for a long time,it has been difficult for agricultural SMEs to obtain loans from banks and other financial institutions due to their small scale of operation,lack of qualified pledges,and uneven quality of information disclosure,etc.Therefore,agricultural SMEs have been looking for other financing methods,and it is natural that agricultural supply chain finance has emerged.However,due to the complexity of the agricultural industry chain and the susceptibility of the natural environment to the crop harvest,banks and other financial institutions cannot continue to use the traditional credit granting method of only looking at financial indicators when conducting credit review,but also need to consider multiple factors.Based on this,this paper takes the credit risk of agricultural supply chain finance as the research object under the background of digital economy: firstly,this paper formulates the research content and methodology of this paper by reading a lot of literature and analyzing the existing research results;secondly,this paper defines the concepts of digital economy,agricultural supply chain finance and its credit risk,and analyzes the factors of agricultural supply chain financial credit risk sources under the background of digital economy and elaborates the risk generation mechanism under the guidance of relevant financial risk theories.thirdly,under the framework of following the theoretical foundation and mechanism analysis,this paper uses empirical analysis method,literature search method and index frequency statistics method to screen the credit risk evaluation indexes of agricultural supply chain finance in the context of digital economy,so as to construct a credit risk evaluation system containing 22 indicators from seven aspects;finally,this paper selects 32non-listed agricultural SMEs listed on the New Third Board as the research sample of this paper,and uses the method of logistic regression analysis with factors extracted by principal component analysis to empirically construct a credit risk evaluation model for calculating the probability of compliance of agricultural SMEs in agricultural supply chain finance under the digital economy.The results show that the new perspective of digital economy is used to analyze the credit risk of agricultural SMEs under agricultural supply chain finance,which is different from the traditional lending business of banks that only considers a single perspective such as the static financial qualification of the financing enterprise itself,and it changes from static examination to dynamic tracking of the entire supply chain operation effect based on external changes,while continuing to focus on the qualification level of the agricultural core enterprises with which it cooperates.In addition,in the credit risk evaluation system constructed in this paper,the most indicators are related to small and medium-sized agricultural financing enterprises’ own factors,followed by the agricultural core enterprises they deal with,third-party logistics supervision,the quality of assets under financing and the overall operation level of the agricultural supply chain,as well as indicators are more which are related to the development status of the agricultural digital economy based on the background situation of the digital economy,and the better prediction effect also proves that these factors are the main sources of credit risk in agricultural supply chain finance under the general environment of the digital economy.Finally,the Logistic regression model constructed by the empirical analysis of this paper has a certain predictive effect and provides case support in agriculture area.Then,based on the empirical results,the paper proposes credit risk management suggestions in five aspects: improving the credit risk assessment system,strengthening the credit qualification review of agricultural core enterprises,changing the focus of investigation on agricultural small and medium-sized financing enterprises,accelerating the construction of agricultural digital information platform and applying digital technology to strengthen the dynamic monitoring of agricultural supply chain,so as to provide some evaluation reference for banks and other financial institutions in supporting the lending decisions advocated by the government to "support agricultural development".