The Spatial Effect Of Local Government Debt On Industrial Structure Transformation

Industry is the cornerstone of national economic development and plays a pivotal role in social and economic development.my country’s industrial structure is gradually transitioning from low efficiency to high efficiency,but the improvement of industrial structure is still limited by internal and external constraints.my country’s current level of economic and social development has begun to shift from a high-speed stage to a high-quality stage,and the main driving force for China’s high-quality economic development comes from the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure.a key role.The government debt problem accompanied by the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure has become an important issue that has been widely concerned by all sectors of society.Under the influence of active fiscal policies,the scale of financial liabilities in various regions has gradually increased,especially the special anti-epidemic bonds issued in response to the new crown epidemic,resulting in the scale of my country’s financial liabilities reaching its peak.Restricted by factors such as resources and location,the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure is not a comprehensive and balanced development,but is in line with the economic development and debt levels of different regions.Therefore,it is necessary to study the impact of local government debt on the spatial effect of industrial structure upgrading.Based on the review of relevant domestic papers,this paper summarizes and summarizes the current research results,and according to the international emerging economic geography theory,the spatial effect is introduced into the traditional econometric model.Based on the panel statistics of ten regions,five factors including infrastructure,openness,education,urbanization rate,and level of scientific and technological progress are included in the control variables,and the spatial Durbin model is used to empirically study the effect of local government debt on the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure.Impact.The results of Moran’s index show that my country’s provincial industrial structure has shown obvious spatial structure aggregation characteristics,and the spatial direction correlation between industrial structures is gradually improving.At present,the mainstream spatial econometric models in academia generally include spatial autocorrelation model,spatial error model and spatial Dobin model.In this paper,the Hausman test is used to determine the use of spatial fixed effects,and then the LM test,Wald test,and LR test are used.The fitting degree of the spatial Doberman model was determined to be the best.The results of the spatial Durbin model show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between local government debt and industrial structure transformation,which promotes first and then inhibits.In terms of control variables,infrastructure construction,education,openness,and urbanization all have an effect on the upgrading of regional industrial structure.significant positive impact.In addition,this paper further analyzes and studies the spatial effect,examines and studies the influence of different explanatory variables on the neighboring region and the region in the direct effect,indirect effect and total effect,and finds that the increase of government debt in the region can promote the neighboring region Industrial development,while promoting the industrial transformation and upgrading of the entire region.In addition,we also used two different weight matrices,the geographic distance weight matrix and the proximity distance weight matrix,to conduct research,conducted robust tests with urban investment bond data,and conducted heterogeneity analysis,dividing my country’s provinces into eastern and central regions.,three parts of the western part of the study.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of government local debt on the upgrading of industrial structure in different regions of the country is also different.The economic inflection point value of the inverted U-shaped structure in the eastern region is much larger than that in the central and western regions,indicating that the more developed regions in the eastern region have a greater impact on the government.The debt tolerance is relatively high,while the central and western regions with less developed economies are more sensitive to the negative effects of government debt.Based on the above conclusions,this paper finally puts forward relevant policy opinions as follows:(1)To view the relationship between local government debt and industrial structure upgrading from a dialectical perspective,it is neither an absolute promotion nor an absolute inhibition;(2)Make good use of my country’s The spatial correlation of industrial structure,according to local conditions,strengthen communication with neighboring regions,and promote the coordinated development of regional economy;(3)the government should change the concept of traditional GDP growth as the goal,from high-speed development to high-quality development;(4)different The influencing factors of regional industrial upgrading are different,and different policies and regulations should be formulated according to the actual situation to promote the optimization of the industrial structure.