Research On Optimization Of Emergency Medical Supplies Distribution Paths Considering Demand Urgency Under Epidemic Situation

The frequent occurrence of public health events in recent years has sparked widespread concern about the public health system,medical resources and emergency response capabilities.As an emerging public health emergency with strong contagiousness and concealment,the COVID-19 pandemic poses a serious threat to the lives,health,and socio-economic development of the Chinese people.Especially in large and medium-sized cities with high population density,which have become the hardest-hit areas of the epidemic,sharp increase in demand for medical supplies such as medical equipment,drugs and protective supplies.The shortage of emergency medical supplies has become more prominent.In the early stages of the epidemic,governments and medical institutions at all levels needed to deploy supplies in a timely manner,but the lack of adequate information sharing and material deployment mechanisms led to untimely dispatch and uneven distribution of supplies,further exacerbating the shortage of supplies.Ensuring timely supply and equitable distribution of emergency medical supplies has become an important aspect of emergency response efforts.However,during the early stages of the epidemic response,the uncertainty surrounding the intensity and spread of the outbreak made it more difficult to timely allocate emergency medical supplies,greatly affecting the efficiency of emergency response efforts.Therefore,this thesis focuses on the shortage of emergency medical supplies under the context of the COVID-19 epidemic and conducts research on the prediction and optimization of emergency medical supplies distribution.This article starts from the definition,characteristics,and classification of emergency medical supplies,the difference between emergency medical supplies and general supplies is analyzed,and the theory related to the demand forecast of emergency supplies and vehicle path problems is introduced;on this basis,combined with the characteristics of epidemic transmission and virus infection trends,this thesis constructs an emergency medical supply demand prediction model based on actual epidemic data,The SEIR model is used to assess the infection situation of various populations at a certain time in the future,and the total demand in the jurisdiction is projected by defining the single-day emergency medical supplies demand of different infected populations;secondly,the factors influencing the urgency of demand at the demand point are summarized and organized,and six indicators are selected from three dimensions: infection status,medical infrastructure status,and medical supplies reserve status,a evaluation index system for the urgency of emergency medical supplies demand under the epidemic was constructed.The entropy-weighted TOPSIS method was used to rank the urgency of demand for emergency medical supplies in various prefecture-level cities in Hubei province.Secondly,the composition of the total cost of distribution of emergency medical supplies is improved by introducing the demand urgency,and the driving cost,delay penalty cost and subsidy cost of distribution vehicles are also considered,and the optimization model of the distribution path of emergency medical supplies considering the total cost is minimized as the objective function,and the simulated annealing algorithm is designed to solve it,and the relevant parameters of the simulated annealing algorithm are compared to determine the best combination of parameters.Finally,taking 27 hospitals in various cities of Hubei Province as an example,the optimal vehicle routing arrangement was obtained using the simulated annealing algorithm.By comparing with the results that did not consider the urgency of demand,the feasibility of the proposed model and algorithm was verified.In the case of dynamic changes in the epidemic situation and the state of supply and demand of materials,it is important to ensure the timely delivery and reasonable distribution of emergency medical supplies to improve the efficiency of the epidemic response and reduce the losses brought to society by the epidemic.This thesis includes 25 figures,18 tables and 61 references.