Construction And Application Of Biopharmaceutical Enterprise Valuation Model Based On Fuzzy Real Option Method

With the emergence of the new crown epidemic,countries around the world attach great importance to life and health,and have spread to close attention to the entire biomedical industry under the promotion and publicity of the capital market.In recent years,the country has introduced a series of medical support policies and new regulations based on its strong support for the biomedical industry,improved the market environment and corporate situation of the biomedical industry,and promoted the high-speed development of enterprises and a large number of market scale expansion.The importance of various countries’ attention to the biomedical industry has also increased day by day,and a large amount of funds have been poured into the cutting-edge development of the industry and provided new opportunities.Biomedical is a representative industry with dual attributes of manufacturing and high-tech,and a reasonable assessment of its value is particularly important.After years of application practice,the value evaluation method of traditional enterprise has matured,but the inadequateness in the evaluation of biomedical enterprises has become more prominent.To this end,based on the analysis of the biomedical industry,the composition and characteristics of its corporate value are studied,and by building a valuation model that is more in line with the characteristics of biomedical enterprises,it provides some ideas for similar enterprises with similar valuations in subsequent values.This thesis compares the shortcomings of traditional enterprise value assessment methods,comprehensively analyzes the overall situation of the biopharmaceutical industry and the key factors affecting the value of biopharmaceutical enterprises,and concludes that the value of such enterprises should be composed of two parts,namely,the current value and the potential value of the enterprise.The current value of a biopharmaceutical enterprise is the value that can be created by all the assets currently owned by the enterprise,which is calculated using the FCFF model in the income method.The uncertainty of the potential value is large,which is reflected by the option value of the enterprise,and the B-S model in the real option method is usually selected for analysis.However,in practical applications,for biomedical enterprises with more R&D projects,there are too many hypothetical parameters in the B-S model.In order to reduce the subjectivity of the parameters,the trapezoidal fuzzy number in fuzzy mathematical theory is introduced to correct the two main parameters of the underlying asset value and exercise value in B-S,and the original single number is replaced with a fuzzy interval,and the prediction result is also changed from an absolute value to a reflection of the interval.This weakens the shortcomings of the original real option model.In summary,this thesis combines the FCFF model in the income method and the fuzzy real option method to construct a biopharmaceutical enterprise value evaluation model,and selects Watson Biologics with self-developed biological vaccines as the core as a case company for analysis and demonstration.The fifth Chapter verifies the effectiveness of the model through specific cases,and highlights the advantages of the fuzzy real option model through comparative analysis with multiple models such as the income method and the real option method.The evaluation results show that the valuation results based on the fuzzy real option method are closer to the current market value of the enterprise,which proves the feasibility and rationality of the method and further enriches the existing value evaluation theory of biopharmaceutical enterprises.