| The words of "risk","turbulence" and "uncertainty" have become gradually to describe today’s international environment.Will the change of firms’ perception of economic policy uncertainty brought by the macro environment affect their innovation behavior in this background? From the perspective of enterprises’ perception of economic policy uncertainty,this study reviews relevant domestic and foreign literature,defines relevant concepts and makes logical deduction on the basis of theory,constructs relevant hypotheses and models,and deeply explores their impact on enterprise innovation.Further more,this thesis tests the transmission mechanism of real options,financing constraints and risk aversion.Then,this thesis analyzes the role of ownership,industry and perception difference in the relationship between the two.This thesis uses the Text Mining Method to extract information from the annual reports of China’s A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2021,constructs an index to measure enterprises’ perception of policy uncertainty,and studies the impact of changes in economic policy uncertainty perception on corporate innovation through empirical analysis.We conclude that:(1)The economic policy uncertainty perception index constructed in this paper is practical.(2)The perception of economic policy uncertainty has an inhibitory effect on corporate innovation.(3)There are three channels for the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty perception on corporate innovation:(1)Considering the cost caused by the irreversibility of enterprise investment projects,investment projects are regarded as a call option.When the perception of economic policy uncertainty increases,enterprises will become uncertain about the value that can be created by carrying out new innovation activities and will increase the option value and implicit risk of "waiting," which makes enterprises tend to be cautious in innovation decision-making.(2)When economic policy uncertainty increases,it is more difficult for banks to evaluate the credit risk and expected return of corporate loans,and their willingness to approve new credit decreases;At the same time,in the capital market,investors are information-deficient.In order to make up for this defect,investors will require enterprises to provide higher rate of returning,which will increase the financing cost of enterprises and lead to the increase of innovation cost.(3)From the perspective of investment decision-making,due to the agency problem between management and shareholders,if managers fail in investment,especially in high-risk investment such as innovation,their personal loss will be much greater than that of shareholders,so they are less willing to take risks.(4)The ownership,industry and perception difference of the company have different effects on the relationship between economic policy uncertainty perception and innovation:(1)In non-state-owned enterprises,the inhibitory effect of economic policy uncertainty perception on corporate innovation is stronger than that of state-owned enterprises.This shows that in the external market environment with great uncertainty,non-state-owned enterprises are more sensitive to the changes of economic policies.In this case,managers of non-soes will be more inclined to reduce innovation behaviors.(2)High-tech enterprises are more inclined to seize the opportunities brought by uncertainties and will not easily give up innovation.At the same time,high-tech enterprises invest more resources in innovation activities,and the rational decision is to continue the original R&D activities;In addition,high-tech enterprises enjoy government subsidies,which can alleviate the financing constraints and risks caused by economic policy uncertainty to a certain extent,thus they have a weaker inhibitory effect on corporate R&D investment.(3)The study finds that enterprises with a more positive attitude are less inhibit than those with a less positive attitude when facing changes in the same macroeconomic environment.(4)Different enterprises will have different innovation investment due to the difference in industry competition.We find that firms in more intense industries are less inhibit than firms in less intense industries.The innovations of this thesis are as follows:(1)From the entry point: the current studies focus on the impact of economic policy uncertainty at the macro level on corporate innovation.As micro-level individuals,enterprises will inevitably have different perceptions of economic policies.Therefore,this thesis constructs the individual perception index of enterprises’ economic policy uncertainty to study the impact of individual perception differences on their innovation.(2)In terms of research methods,this thesis measures enterprises’ perception of economic policy uncertainty through Text Mining Method,which has certain theoretical significance and practical value. |
