Determination For Rice Full Cost Insurance Premium Rate In Hunan Province

Since ancient times,Hunan Province has been the main rice planting area and food supply base.Rice is the largest crop in Hunan Province,and its rice planting area and output have ranked first in the country many times.Although the natural conditions are superior,natural disasters and pests occur frequently.Factors such as the normalization of meteorological disasters and the complexity of pests have become the most uncertain factors affecting the development of rice production in Hunan,seriously affecting the normal production and constraints of rice in Hunan Province.There are many problems in the operation of traditional agricultural insurance,such as low insurance amount and insufficient coverage,which cannot provide sufficient protection for agricultural production.The low protection of traditional agricultural insurance seriously restricts the process of agricultural modernization and the further development of agricultural insurance in Hunan Province.At this time,full cost insurance,as a new risk management tool introduced by the state,can effectively guarantee the stable production of rice in Hunan Province and safeguard national food security because of its characteristics of covering all costs in production with the insurance amount and broad coverage of insurance liability.Based on the relevant data processing,this paper uses HP filter method,parameter method and ARIMA model to determine the pure premium rate of full cost insurance in Hunan Province,which contributes to the theoretical development of rice full cost insurance in my country.The full text is divided into six parts:The first Chapter,Introduction.The background of this article is introduced.Secondly,the literature on production insurance,income insurance and full cost insurance at home and abroad is reviewed.Finally,it is the analysis of the research content and method,innovation and deficiency of this paper.The second chapter is an overview of full cost insurance.Firstly,the concept of full cost insurance is expounded,the advantages and disadvantages of full cost insurance are explained through comparative analysis with income insurance,and the development status of full cost insurance is briefly explained.The third chapter analyzes the natural conditions of rice production in Hunan Province and the current situation of rice planting.Then it analyzes the necessity of developing full cost insurance in Hunan Province.Finally,analyze the pilot situation of full cost insurance in Hunan Province.The fourth chapter first introduces the setting of full cost expenses,introduces the method steps of full cost fitting and forecasting,analyzes the splitting method of rice yield data,constructs volatility and fits the distribution of volatility data.The yield risk analysis method and the Bootstrap rate estimation method are introduced.The fifth chapter,the yield data and complete cost data of medium indica rice in Hunan Province from 2004 to 2021 were obtained.For the full cost data,the ARIMA model is used to fit and predict the predicted value.Using the yield risk analysis method and the Bootstrap rate estimation method,the full cost insurance rate of rice in Hunan Province was obtained by using the principle of balance of income and expenditure,and the rate was compared.The sixth chapter,conclusion and outlook.Summarize the conclusions of the full text,and point out future research directions.The innovations of this study are:(1)Scholars at home and abroad are no research on determination of full-cost insurance premium rates for rice in Hunan Province.This paper makes a exploration of the theoretical research on the rate determination of full cost insurance.(2)This paper designs the relative deductible rate and the full compensation in the case of no income.The relative deductible rate can reduce the loss related expenses caused by a many of small claims;And the failure of harvest occurs less frequently,setting total compensation for failure of harvest can only increase a little cost,and bring more considerate protection to farmers.(3)This paper is based on the yield data and complete cost data of medium indica rice in Hunan Province from 2004 to 2021.The latest data are used to make the research conclusion is closer to the actual situation.