Case Study Of HJ Biomedical Enterprise Value Evaluation Based On An Improved Binary Tree Model

With the advent of the era of national health,in order to encourage Chinese pharmaceutical enterprise source innovation,make domestic original drug maximum benefit local patients,national continuously from the policy level with guide innovation drug industry upgrading,gradually promote drug research and development to First in Class class frontier research field,under the policy help,local pharmaceutical companies research and development ability increase year by year,China’s pharmaceutical industry research and development investment has from $11.9billion in 2016 to $30 billion in 2021,higher than the global compound annual growth rate.In 2019,China will launch the science and technology innovation board in China,allowing unprofitable biomedical enterprises to IPO and go public,and providing diversified financing channels for high-quality innovative drug research and development enterprises.In order to have a stable capital chain to support the smooth progress of research and development projects,more and more innovative drug enterprises rely on the competitive innovative drug research and development pipeline to attract venture capital or IPO to integrate external resources.In order to provide reasonable value reference for economic behaviors such as investment decision-making of innovative drug enterprises,the asset evaluation industry needs to deeply discuss the value evaluation ideas and evaluation methods of such enterprises according to the characteristics of innovative drug enterprises and the value composition of enterprises.This paper adopts literature analysis,case analysis and comparative analysis method,by studying and combing the achievements of other scholars of innovative drug enterprise value evaluation,understand the three main evaluation methods and the real option evaluation model in value evaluation of innovation drug enterprise research progress and practice operability,combined with the evaluation ideas of pipeline valuation method,comprehensive analysis found that the binary tree model in the physical option method compared with the three main evaluation method has higher applicability.Furthermore,based on the specific cases of enterprise value evaluation of HJ biomedical companies selected in this paper,we find that three main problems in the enterprise value of the discount rate is highly subjective;second,the value of option in the development of innovative drugs is ignored,and third,the influence of market volatility on the evaluation value is not considered.For the above problems,a binary tree model is constructed,and the volatility is the most sensitive parameter in the binary tree model,which directly affects the values of other parameters.In order to reasonably predict the value of innovative drug enterprises,the GARCH model based on time series analysis is used to predict the value of volatility σ,so as to optimize and improve the application of the binary tree model.The subsequent comparative analysis of the evaluation results of the income method and the improved binary tree model shows the applicability of the improved binary tree model in the value evaluation of HJ biomedical enterprises.Finally,the research content and conclusion of the whole text are summarized,and the shortcomings and future research direction are put forward.