Economic Policy Uncertainty,Investor Sentiment And Corporate Bond Credit Spread

Under the resonance of multiple factors such as the upgrading of economic structure,continuous trade frictions,and cyclical downward pressure on the economy,the capital market is in an economic environment of various uncertainties.The bond market is an important component of the capital market,where the price level is also effected by various uncertain factors.Among them,the uncertainty of economic policy provided with its extensive and universal influence leads to much attention from scholars.However,existing research mainly analyzes the influence from the perspective of traditional finance based on corporate financing decisions,corporate performance and other perspectives.From the perspective of behavioral finance,this article studies the results of changes in credit spreads reflected by investors’ irrationality,and risk sensitivity.Moreover,the proportion of individual investors in Chinese capital market is relatively high,which means it is significant to study the behavior of investors in response to uncertain information under the influence of emotions in actual market transactions.On the basis of relevant theories and the analysis of the mechanism at the level of investors and enterprises,this paper takes the monthly data of corporate bond credit spreads from June 2015 to December 2019 as a research sample,and its impact on economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiment The bond spreads are empirically analyzed,and the reliability of the conclusions is verified by endogenous tests and robustness analysis.The final conclusions are as follows:(1)Economic policy uncertainty has a significant positive impact on corporate bond credit spreads.On the other hand,investors High sentiment has a negative and significant impact on credit spreads.(2)The cross term between investor sentiment and economic policy uncertainty is significantly negative,reflecting that investor sentiment has an inhibitory effect on the process of economic policy uncertainty affecting credit spreads.(3)Through threshold regression analysis,it is confirmed that economic policy uncertainty has differential effects on credit spreads under different emotional states.According to the research conclusions of this paper,this article makes relevant policy suggestion in combination with the actual situation of bond market for the purpose of promoting the development of bond market and facilitating bond prices to reflect the qualification level of issuers and credit bonds.