Research On The Influence Of Fund Manager’s Personal Characteristics On Stock-Picking And Market Timing Abilities

With the increasingly severe pension situation and currency depreciation caused by inflation,the financial management level and willingness of the public are also increasing year by year.As a representative of common prosperity,the management scale of domestic public funds is also expanding,and the variety of investments available is becoming increasingly rich.How to purchase funds has become a hot topic.In the fund industry,there is a saying that "selecting a fund is selecting a fund manager." When promoting a public fund manager to the public,public fund companies often promote it to individual investors in public funds from multiple perspectives,such as the fund manager’s education background,tenure in securities industry,gender,and work experience.This article mainly studies whether the educational background,tenure in securities industry,and gender of fund managers have an impact on their stock selection and timing ability from the perspective of fund holders.This article first reviews the research background,significance,references,relevant theories,models,and mechanisms of the impact of personal characteristics of public fund managers on stock selection timing ability.Secondly,a hypothesis is proposed: the educational background of public fund managers is related to their ability to select stocks and timing;The years of securities practice of public fund managers are related to their ability to select stocks and timing;The gender of public fund managers is related to their ability to select stocks and timing.Then,based on the Chinese Kichen cycle,the Chinese stock market is divided into a bull bear cycle every 7 years,with a sample period of 7 years of data from January 2016 to December 2022.The selected sample funds are all flexible allocation funds established before 2016.Then,based on the H-M model,the scale factor,book to market ratio factor,profitability factor and investment style factor in the five factor model and the momentum factor in the four factor model are introduced to build the HM six factor model,and empirical analysis is carried out by using correlation test,variance expansion factor test,stability test,F-test,BP test,Hausman test,multiple linear regression,robustness test and endogenous test.Finally,propose research conclusions and policy recommendations.The research results show that China’s public fund managers generally have the ability to select stocks,which may be attributed to the professional investment research team in the public fund industry and the fund managers’ preference for high-quality white horse blue chip stocks.However,the timing ability of public fund managers is uneven,which may be attributed to the fact that public fund managers and fund holders are prone to principal-agent problems in terms of timing ability.SMB,HML and CMA show significant negative correlation in the sample,while Risk Premium,RMW and momentum factor show significant positive correlation.Public fund managers with bachelor’s degree,master’s degree,and doctoral degree all have the ability to choose stocks.Fund managers with doctoral degree have the ability to choose timing,while fund managers with bachelor’s degree and master’s degree do not have the ability to choose timing.Public fund managers who have worked in securities for 8 to 14 years,15 to 21 years,and 22 to 28 years all have the ability to select stocks.Public fund managers who have worked in securities for 15 to 21 years,and 22 to 28 years have the ability to select time.Both male and female fund managers have the ability to select stocks and timing,and male fund managers have a slightly higher ability to select stocks and timing among flexible allocation funds than female fund managers.To this end,the following countermeasures and suggestions are proposed: First,the securities regulatory authorities should strengthen professional ethics education and supervision of illegal activities for public fund managers,so as to promote a deep binding between public fund managers and the interests of the foundation people.Secondly,universities and colleges that cultivate financial professionals should strengthen virtual and real disk teaching,test and improve the applicability of conclusions and models introduced from abroad,and expand localized teaching materials.Third,public fund companies link the personal income of public fund managers to their ability to select stocks and timing,and add a punishment mechanism for public fund managers.Fourth,mutual fund managers should strengthen their professional ethics and abide by laws and regulations,rebuild their loyalty and trust to mutual fund investors(fund holders),and achieve a virtuous cycle of fund industry scale development.Fifth,public fund investors(fund holders)should rationally invest and report illegal behaviors of fund managers.When market risks are highly accumulated,they should actively stop losses and not have too high expectations for public fund managers.They should try to choose public fund managers who have experienced one complete bull bear cycle but have not experienced multiple complete bull bear cycles.fund holders who prefer risks can choose male public fund managers.Sixth,stock investors(shareholders)can focus on stocks that are intensively researched and heavily held by public fund managers,and use public fund managers with the ability to choose the timing to subscribe to funds,limit the purchase of funds,participate in dividends,and adjust positions for shares as signals to judge the changes in market conditions.