| After the report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,the report of the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China once again emphasized‘‘comprehensively promoting rural revitalization’’.The construction of digital rural areas will provide new impetus for rural revitalization,vigorously promote the construction of digital rural areas,and deepen financial services.The combination of digital technology and finance has developed rapidly.Various financial service institutions,represented by financial technology companies and other institutions,have innovated diversified Financial inclusion products.These diversified and popular products provide important support for financial innovation and financial deepening,and also provide a product basis for the rural financial system.As Chinese economic development has shifted from a stage of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development,digital Financial inclusion has become an important means to help economic development,but at the same time,attention should be paid to the risks it brings.The incident at Henan Rural Bank in April 2022 made people realize that the development of digital technology not only brings convenience to financial institutions but also amplifies risks,making the risks of rural commercial banks under the digital background received attention.The risk situation of rural commercial banks not only affects their own development,but also affects the stability of the rural financial system and the development of the rural economy due to their own position and role in the economy.Based on the above background,this paper studies the risk impact of digital Financial inclusion development on rural commercial banks.First,this paper defines the concepts of Financial inclusion and digital Financial inclusion,and combs the long tail customer theory,financial development and deepening theory,and risk management theory.Secondly,it analyzes the current situation of rural commercial banks and the development of digital Financial inclusion,and summarizes the relevant factors that affect the risk of rural commercial banks.On this basis,the paper analyzes the mechanism of the impact of digital Financial inclusion development on the risk of rural commercial banks and puts forward assumptions.Once again,this paper selected data from 11 listed rural commercial banks,selected relevant risk indicators,and comprehensively evaluated their risk levels through factor analysis.Finally,based on the data of Peking University Digital Financial inclusion Index,the third issue of Peking University Digital Finance Research Center,this paper selects the total digital Financial inclusion index and its secondary indicators as explanatory variables,takes the risk evaluation results of rural commercial banks as explanatory variables,and introduces intermediate income as intermediary variable,This paper empirically analyzes the impact of digital Financial inclusion development on the risk of rural commercial banks through the fixed effect model and the Mesomeric effect model.Through the analysis,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)The development of digital Financial inclusion has increased the risk of rural commercial banks.(2)The development of digital Financial inclusion affects the risk of rural commercial banks by affecting the intermediate income.The intermediate income affects the development of digital Financial inclusion and affects the Mesomeric effect of Assumption of risk of rural commercial banks.(3)Compared with other secondary indicators,coverage breadth has a greater impact on the risk of rural commercial banks.Therefore,this paper proposes the following suggestions:(1)Avoid blindly expanding coverage.(2)Innovate intermediate income and reduce risk incidence.(3)We will improve the regulatory system for digital Financial inclusion.(4)Improve digitization and enhance risk resilience. |
