Analysis On Spatial-temporal Evolution And Driving Force Of The Benchmark Land Price For Residential Land In The Central Urban Area Of Tai’an City

With the rapid development of China’s economy,the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries has increased,and the price of residential land in various towns has increased significantly.The price of residential land is the most sensitive part of the land market and the most concerned part of the public,and the benchmark land price of residential land greatly affects the price of residential land.The driving effect of the development of the tourism industry on the local economy is becoming more and more significant,and the land market of tourist cities has gradually become a hot topic.Studying the spatial and temporal evolution of the benchmark land price of residential land in the central urban area of Tai’an City and its driving force will help to find out the land price effect of tourism landscapes such as Mount Tai,and provide decision-making basis for the sustainable use of regional land resources,the development planning of tourist cities and social and economic development.In this paper,the central urban area of Tai’an City is taken as the research area.Based on the update results of the benchmark land price in 2010,2013,2016 and 2019,and the statistical yearbook of Tai’an City,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the benchmark land price of residential land at all levels in the central urban area of Tai’an City from 2010 to2019 are analyzed by means of literature research and GIS spatial analysis.The stepwise regression model and Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR)model were used to explore the driving force of the benchmark land price of residential land in the central urban area of Tai’an City in 2019.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1)The spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of benchmark land price of residential land in central urban area of Tai’an City from 2010 to 2019The benchmark land price of residential land in the central urban area of Tai’an City has been growing from 2010 to 2019.It grew rapidly from 2010 to 2013,and the growth rate of land prices at all levels was between 32-53%;in 2013-2016,the growth rate was slow,and the growth rate of land prices at all levels was within 9%.From 2016 to 2019,the growth rate of land prices at all levels was between 35-73%.This is consistent with the national policy of promoting the development of the housing market in 2010-2013,curbing the excessive rise of housing prices in 2013-2016,and strengthening the housing security policy of residents in2016-2019.From 2010 to 2019,the area of first to third-level residential land in the central urban area of Tai’an City is expanding from north to south,and the fourth to sixth-level land is gradually upgraded to the third to fifth-level land.Among them,the largest increase in the benchmark land price of residential land is the secondary land near the high-speed rail new area,Panhe Park and South Lake Park,with an increase of 3000-3915 yuan/m~2;the largest growth rate is the area north of Qinglan Expressway and south of Panhe Street,between300.00-669.23%.This is consistent with the fact that Taishan is located in the northern end of Tai’an City,and the price of residential land is distributed from north to south from high to low,and is greatly affected by the tourism landscape.Meanwhile,through the ratio of land price structure of the same level and the same level,it is found that,as a tourist city,the development rate of benchmark land price of residential land of Grade 2 to grade 5 in Tai’an is higher than that of grade 1,and the development rate of benchmark land price of residential land is higher than that of other land types,which is in line with the characteristics of land price of tourist city.(2)Driving force analysis of the benchmark land price of residential land in central district of Tai’an CityThrough SPSS correlation analysis and stepwise regression model analysis,the driving factors affecting the benchmark land price of residential land in the central urban area of Tai’an City were analyzed.It was found that among the seven driving factors with a high correlation with the benchmark land price of residential land,the tourism landscape and the bustling of commercial services were highly correlated.The regression model results show that in the stepwise regression model and the geographically weighted regression model,tourism landscape is the most important driving force,followed by commercial prosperity.In the geographically weighted regression model,the average regression coefficient of tourism landscape is 7.643,and its influence on the benchmark land price of residential land is centered on Mount Tai,and gradually weakens from north to south.It has a greater impact on Mount Tai,which is closer to Mount Tai,and has less impact on the southern region of Daiyue District,which is farther away from Mount Tai.The average regression coefficient of commercial service prosperity is 5.705,and its influence on the benchmark land price of residential land is enhanced southward with Taishan District as the center.In summary,from 2010 to 2019,the benchmark land price of residential land in the central urban area of Tai’an City has risen sharply.The vertical time series changes are mainly affected by national policies and social and economic development,and the horizontal spatial distribution is mainly affected by tourism landscapes such as Mount Tai and large-scale commercial services.