| After the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008,the debt scale of Chinese real estate enterprises expanded rapidly,and the potential systemic risks brought by high leverage became the focus of attention.In order to prevent the occurrence of risks,China has introduced the "three red lines" and the "centralized loan management system for real estate enterprises" in 2020 to optimize the allocation of financial resources and strictly prevent the illegal flow of funds into the real estate market.China’s stricter supervision of real estate enterprises has effectively curbed the continuous rise of the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises.However,since 2021,some real estate enterprises represented by Evergrande Group have encountered capital turnover difficulties and debt defaults one after another,which have brought a great impact on the real estate market and related financial institutions.Therefore,it is necessary to deeply discuss the relationship between the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises and systemic financial risks,so as to formulate more effective risk prevention countermeasures.Firstly,this paper reviews the literature,and summarizes the definition and measurement of systemic financial risk,as well as the influence relationship and mechanism of leverage ratio and leverage ratio of real estate enterprises on systemic financial risk.Then,based on the existing theories and research results,the paper analyzes the mechanism of real estate enterprise leverage ratio affecting systemic financial risk.Then,the comprehensive index method is used to measure the national systemic financial risk.Based on the national data,the development status of real estate enterprises,the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises and the change of systemic financial risk are analyzed,and the correlation line chart is drawn,which preliminarily shows the nonlinear relationship between the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises and systemic financial risk.Finally,based on the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2021,the comprehensive index method is used to measure the provincial systemic financial risk,and the fixed-effect panel model and the spatial Dubin model are used to study the influence of the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises on the systemic financial risk and the spatial spillover effect.The results show that the relationship between the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises and systemic financial risk presents a "U" shaped relationship,which first promotes and then inhibits,and the inflection point is about 76.01%.The housing price level has a significant negative moderating effect on the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises affecting the systemic financial risk.The rising housing price can restrain the influence of the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises on the systemic financial risk.The spatial analysis shows that the rising leverage ratio of real estate enterprises in other provinces can play a "warning role" and restrain systemic financial risks in their own provinces,but it is just the opposite in the central region.Therefore,the focus of real estate enterprises to deleverage should be in the central region.Finally,based on theoretical analysis and empirical results,this paper mainly gives corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from the perspective of real estate enterprises,financing supervision and government.It provides a new policy reference for resolving risks in real estate and systemic financial risks. |
