The Impact Of China-US Trade War On Chinese Agricultural Imports

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States in 1979,trade between the two countries has increased year by year,and at the same time the scale of agricultural trade has also been expanding,and the United States has long become one of the important sources of China’s agricultural imports.2018 onwards,the United States has repeatedly provoked trade disputes and announced several batches of tariff increase lists,and China has had no choice but to take countermeasures against the United States,and agricultural products have become the key products of China’s countermeasures against the United States.Whether the implementation of China’s counter-imposed tariff measures to the US will have a dampening effect on US agricultural imports and whether there will be a trade diversion effect has become a key concern for scholars.Based on the process of sorting out the evolution of trade frictions between China and the US and the characteristics of the current situation of China’s agricultural imports,this thesis constructs a DID model and empirically assesses the impact of the implementation of the counter-imposed tariff policy on China’s agricultural imports to the US using monthly data on China’s agricultural imports from 2016 to 2022.The main conclusions are as follows: firstly,China’s imposition of counter tariffs on the US has produced a significant trade suppression effect,significantly inhibiting the amount and volume of China’s agricultural imports from the US,while the average price of China’s agricultural imports from the US has increased,with China’s importing enterprises bearing more tariff costs;secondly,China’s imposition of counter tariffs on the US has produced a significant trade diversion effect,with China’s imports of agricultural products from 15 countries after the occurrence of trade frictions Third,the extent of the impact on China’s agricultural imports caused by the imposition of countermeasure tariffs on the US varies slightly depending on the batch of the list and the product category.In terms of product categories,animal products and plant products are significantly more affected than other products.Based on the above findings,this thesis proposes policy recommendations in three areas:expanding agricultural import channels,emphasizing domestic agricultural production,and restructuring the international trade order.