| In recent years,bond defaults occur frequently in large real estate enterprises,which seriously damages the legitimate interests of investors.As one of the top four real estate companies in the industry,Sunac China officially defaulted on its bonds for the first time on May 12,2022.This paper takes Sunac China as the research object,uses literature analysis,case analysis,comparative analysis and quantitative analysis to analyze the causes and consequences of bond default of listed real estate companies,measures its credit risk,and finally puts forward reasonable suggestions for regulators,bond issuers and investors.Firstly,this paper introduces the current situation and characteristics of bond defaults in Chinese securities market and real estate industry since 2014.In 2018,the balance of default and the number of default bonds in the Chinese bond market increased significantly,and the real estate industry also experienced bond defaults for the first time.At present,credit risks are constantly spreading in the real estate industry.Many large real estate companies and even leading enterprises in the industry such as Sunac China have also exposed their financial risks.Sunac China was successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 7,2010,and the actual controlling shareholder of the company is Sun Hongbin.At present,the main business involves real estate,property services,cultural tourism and culture four plates.As of March 12,2023,Sunac China had effectively defaulded on six U.S.dollar bonds,and the balance of the essentially defaultable bonds reached 3,926.6 billion U.S.dollars.This paper analyzes the causes of the financial crisis of Sunac China from the external environment and internal factors,and analyzes its subsequent impact.The external reasons for its bond default are mainly the slow growth of China’s overall economy in recent years,the government introduced policies to strictly control the rising speed of housing prices,and the development of the real estate industry is lower than expected.The internal reasons are mainly due to unreasonable internal financial structure of Sunac China.Excessive external debt resulted in unreasonable debt structure,decreased profitability and low efficiency of resource utilization.After the issuance of the "three red lines" policy,enterprises are still overly optimistic and take drastic expansion strategies.When the bond default occurred,Sunac China’s main business income decreased,the enterprise suffered losses,and it became more difficult to obtain financing.The operations of its subsidiaries have also been affected;Investors also suffered significant financial losses.In addition,this paper carries on the early warning analysis to Sunac China’s credit risk.Combined with the main rating results of Sunac China given by credit rating agencies and compared with the calculated data of KMV model and Z-score model,it can be seen that the two models can well predict the default probability of Sun AC China.The financial indicators used in Z-score model are all historical data published by enterprises,and the forecast results are static.In contrast,the KMV model relies on the stock market information to calculate the default distance of enterprises,and its early warning results are dynamic and forward-looking.Finally,this paper summarizes the causes,process and results of Sunac China bond default,and on this basis,puts forward reasonable and feasible suggestions for bond issuers,investors and financial market regulators.Regulators should strengthen the management of information disclosure,give full play to the role of macro-control,and carry out hierarchical supervision on real estate enterprises with high debt.Bond issuers should always pay attention to national policy guidance,prevent black swan events,and try to adopt prudent financial policies.Investors should avoid putting their eggs in one basket,but also focus on the financial status and strategic choice of the investment object,to avoid the occurrence of moral hazard. |
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