Research On The Systemic Risk Spillover Effect Of Fintech

With the rapid development of big data,cloud computing,artificial intelligence,blockchain and other technologies,fintech has entered a new stage of development through the continuous innovation and integration of finance and new technologies.Fintech pays more attention to innovation and emphasizes the enabling effect of technology on finance.Fintech has many advantages,such as reducing market friction,promoting substantive reform of deposit interest rates,extending financial services for long-tail users,etc.,better promoting the effective allocation of scarce resources,and efficiently guiding capital flow to the real economy and projects that benefit the people.Fintech is part of the financial system,and it also poses systemic risks.In order to develop fintech prudently,give full play to its inclusive value,and promote the high-quality development of fintech,it is necessary to recognize the systemic risk spillover of fintech,and then supervise fintech scientifically.Firstly,this paper theoretically analyzes the reasons for the spillover of financial technology systemic risk from three aspects: the correlation between financial technology and financial institutions,the influence of monetary circulation speed,and the lag of supervision.Then it analyzes the path of systemic risk spillover of fintech to banking,securities and insurance industries.In the measurement of systemic risk,Va R is used to measure the total risk of fintech and ΔCo Va R is used to measure the degree of systemic risk spillover of fintech to traditional financial industry.Due to the time-varying characteristics of financial time series,the correlation between different units is constantly changing.In this paper,GARCH model is used to calculate Va R,and DCC-GARCH model is used to calculate Co Va R.Considering the close correlation between fintech and banking,securities,insurance and other financial industries,and even financial institutions,the generalized variance decomposition network model is adopted to study the systemic risk between fintech and traditional financial subsectors.The mathematical process of calculating each index is also given through formula derivation.The empirical results show that the risk of fintech is higher than that of the traditional financial industry,and the overall degree of systemic risk spillover of fintech to the traditional financial industry continues to decline with the gradual withdrawal of P2 P online lending.After 2018,the systemic risk of fintech is at a low level,showing a stable and orderly development process.Under the impact of COVID-19,the degree of systemic risk spillover of fintech has increased.Fintech has different degree of systemic risk spillover to banking industry,securities industry,insurance industry and other financial industries,among which the spillover degree to the securities industry is the largest,and the spillover degree to the banking industry is the least.In addition,under the impact of the pandemic,fintech has become more relevant to financial institutions and has greater risk transmission capacity,making it of systemic importance.Finally,the paper gives some policy suggestions on financial supervision from the perspective of supervision.