Research On The Influencing Factors And Measurement Of Urban Investment Bond Default In Guizhou Province

In the context of China ’s tax-sharing reform and accelerated urbanization,in order to meet the huge financial needs of urban infrastructure construction,local governments have emerged as the ’ city investment bond ’ and gradually become the main source of financing for local government urbanization development and construction.In 2009 and 2012,the issuance of China ’s urban investment bonds ushered in two blowout outbreaks.With the transformation of China ’s economic structure and the deepening reform of the national governance system,the financial risks,government debt and social conflicts caused by the urban investment bond problem are further highlighted.At the beginning of 2022,with the release of the news that the 156 billion city investment bond of Zunyi Road and Bridge Construction Group in Guizhou Province has been extended for 20 years,the default of the city investment bond in Guizhou Province has become the focus of the whole market.This paper takes the urban investment bonds in Guizhou Province as the research object.While defining the urban investment bonds and the probability of default,it sorts out the factors affecting the default of urban investment bonds and the probability measurement model.Finally,it selects 8 local economic and financial indicators,15 urban investment companies ’ own financial indicators,and 143 urban investment companies issuing bonds in Guizhou Province as research samples.Through the multiple ordered logistic regression model and Monte Carlo method,the influencing factors and default probability are empirically analyzed,and corresponding suggestions are put forward.The research results show that the city investment company ’s own operating scale,operating capacity,liquidity level and solvency,local economic scale and financial level are the main reasons affecting the default of city investment bonds in Guizhou Province,which is closely related to the strong government characteristics of city investment bonds.The operating income,working capital turnover rate,cash maturity debt ratio and asset-liability ratio of the city investment company have an impact on the default of the city investment bond.The impact of local GDP,general public budget income,fiscal self-sufficiency rate and local debt rate on the default of the city investment bond is also obvious.From the perspective of the probability of default of urban investment bonds,the subject of urban investment bonds with a credit rating below AA is more likely to default,and the cumulative probability of default is 9.44 %.Therefore,for the city investment platform,we should improve the company ’s own operational efficiency and liquidity management capabilities,improve the company ’s governance level,optimize the internal financial management and debt repayment mechanism,optimize its asset structure,and strengthen the compliance of the city investment company ’s credit enhancement means;for the government,it should strengthen the supervision of local urban investment companies,control the scale of bond issuance,and establish a dynamic,scientific and systematic default risk management system to avoid the occurrence of systemic financial risks caused by the default of urban investment bonds.