Quantitative Study On Credit Risk Of PPP Project Of Agricultural Development Bank Of China

The PPP model is an important strategic decision made by the Party Central Committee,a major reform of the national investment and financing system,and the fiscal system,as an important innovation in the reform of transforming government functions and delegating management to serve efficiency.It can not only meet the needs of the public and relieve the pressure of the government,but also bring new opportunities and challenges to the Agricultural Development Bank of China(hereinafter referred to as "Agricultural Development Bank").The traditional agriculture-supporting business structure has been unable to meet the needs of high-quality development and transformation of the agricultural development Bank,so the agricultural development Bank began to seek reform,expand the scope of business support,and vigorously promote agriculture-related PPP project loans.However,the particularity of PPP projects makes it impossible for the Agricultural Development Bank to confuse PPP project loans with other loans.If we want to develop the PPP project loan in a healthy and stable way,we should carry out the risk quantification work around its characteristics.Based on the above background,this article first introduces the concepts and operational models of PPP projects,risk quantification and management theories,the functional positioning of Agricultural Development Bank,and the relevant theories of finance,economy,and credit risk management that need to be followed in operation;Secondly,through the particularity of the credit risk of the PPP project of the Agricultural Development Bank of China,it analyzes the reasons for the credit risk of the PPP project,such as the lack of close credit risk management and quantitative research,the lack of in-depth understanding of the external environment,the expansion of risk exposure in business indicator assessment,and the impact on the Agricultural Development Bank of China,the government,enterprises and society.Due to the fact that Agricultural Development Bank of China does not need to classify and explore the field in which the project is located when applying for PPP project loans,this article focuses on the municipal infrastructure PPP project under the BOT model.By using the WBS-RBS matrix,consulting experts,and combining with one’s own work practice,identify the primary and secondary risks faced in the PPP project loans of the Agricultural Development Bank of China.With the help of MATLAB program and COWA algorithm,weight each risk factor and obtain the relative weight value of the risks;And use the DEMATEL method to obtain the degree of influence,degree of influence,centrality,and degree of cause of each risk factor.Normalize the multipliers of the two methods to obtain the comprehensive impact of each risk.Finally,risk assessment and analysis were conducted on the PPP project loan cases being processed by the Agricultural Development Bank of China.Suggestions were put forward to strengthen the entire process risk management,build a harmonious bank government relationship,continuously strengthen risk quantification awareness,strengthen risk management,pay attention to interest rate levels,and improve the quality of risk management personnel for the credit risk management of the Agricultural Development Bank of China’s PPP project.Through the research in this article,it provides certain assistance for the quantification of credit risk in PPP project loans of the Agricultural Development Bank of China,and it makes certain contributions to strengthening the risk management of PPP project loans of the Agricultural Development Bank of China in the future.