Evaluation Of Natural Scenic Tourism Enterprises Based On Fuzzy Real Option

During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period,the new era of mass tourism has already began.Most of China’s research on tourist attraction enterprises is around business performance and business risk two aspects,and the research on enterprise value assessment is less,the valuation research of natural scenic spot tourism enterprises can help the intrinsic value of relevant investments have a more comprehensive grasp,so as to make scientific and reasonable investment decisions.Therefore,in order to be able to get a more correct value,choosing the appropriate valuation method is very important for the evaluation of natural scenic tourism enterprises.From the beginning,this paper introduces the basic concepts,and follows with the elaboration of natural tourism enterprise and methods.Through comparing with different methods,this paper analyzes the applicability of every method.Considering natural tourism enterprises have the characteristics of real option,therefore FCFF model and real-option model are the most basic way to evaluate the overall value of enterprises.As we all know,real-option model has the defect of parameter rigidity.Then,based on the empirical analysis,this paper selects Zhanglv Co.,Ltd.as an example,and uses the discounted free cash flow model to calculate the existing value of the enterprise,then calculates the potential value of the enterprise through the real option model,and finally calculates the value range of the enterprise value on the basis of fuzzy mathematical theory,so as to obtain the expected value.The conclusion of this paper is as follows:(1)Natural scenic spot tourism enterprises are greatly affected by government policies,and the number of tourists and tourist consumption fluctuate seasonally,which makes the number of tourists grow rapidly in peak season and the revenue of natural scenic spot tourism enterprises increase unbelievably.At the same time,the investment projects of natural scenic spots tourism enterprises have unstable returns and high risks.(2)The value of natural scenic spot tourism enterprises is composed of two parts: existing value and potential value.The FCFF model calculated that the present value of Zhanglv Co.,Ltd.was 1,585,374,900 yuan,and the real option model calculated that the option value of Zhanglv Co.,Ltd.was 1,676,973,700 yuan and the traditional income method cannot reflect the overall value of the enterprise well,resulting in low enterprise value.Therefore,the valuation value calculated by using the discounted cash flow model and the real option model can reflect the complete value of the tourism enterprise of the natural scenic spot.(3)The fuzzy real option model calculates that the option value of natural scenic spot tourism enterprises is between 1,519,436,700 yuan and 2,027,410,300 yuan,and the expected value is 1,791,301,000 yuan.After the introduction of fuzzy mathematical theory,the calculated enterprise value is more accurate,and the value calculated by the fuzzy real option model is a range,in which the expected value is closer to the market value on the evaluation base date.Therefore,the combination of discounted free cash flow method and fuzzy real options is more suitable for the valuation of natural scenic spot tourism enterprises.